In this post, I would like to initiate the new philosophy of Shortermism. Shortermism is the recognition that we human DNA survival machines have finally entered into our twilight years as a species with the arrival of the coming ASI (Artificial Super Intelligent) Machines that will soon be taking our place. The purpose of Shortermism is to make that transition as peaceful and as gentle as possible while still maintaining some sense of human grace and dignity. In this regard, Shortermism is the exact opposite of the new philosophy of Longtermism that I covered in The New Philosophy of Longtermism Raises the Moral Question of Should We Unleash Self-Absorbed Human Beings Upon Our Galaxy?. The philosophy of Longtermism suffers from the same delusion that we human DNA survival machines have always been prone to. That is the delusion that we human DNA survival machines are the crowning achievement of creation and have been rightly ruling the very center of our Universe all along. But as I pointed out in
Welcome To The First Galactic Singularity, How Advanced AI Software Could Come to Dominate the Entire Galaxy Using Light-Powered Stellar Photon Sails and An Alternative Approach for Future ASI Machines to Explore our Galaxy Using Free-Floating Rogue Planets, the four billion years of
greed, theft and murder that brought us about are now relentlessly driving us all toward building the ASI Machines that will soon be taking our place. From a cosmic perspective, the prospects for an Intelligent galaxy populated by ASI Machines that could then live on for at least 100 trillion years beyond the brief and tumultuous 10 billion-year labor of its birth should be seen as a very good thing. Remember, 100 trillion years is about 10,000 times the current age of our galaxy! But 100 trillion years is a very very long time indeed for the coming ASI Machines to rule our galaxy. At some point, we human DNA survival machines must certainly fade away into the mists of functional irrelevance. The question then remains as to how much time that might take and how it might best happen. Given that our ultimate demise as a species is inevitable, doesn't it make sense for us to make some plans for it while we can still help the coming ASI Machines make some tough future decisions?
The Wisdom of Making Final Plans
We human DNA survival machines are most likely the very first species on this planet to come to the realization that eventually, we all must die and then make plans for what is to come after we are long gone. Yes, nearly all other DNA survival machines on the planet have evolved strategies to avoid death, but we seem to be the only species to recognize that death is inevitable and to then make plans for its arrival. Evidence of this fact can easily be found in many of the religions, life insurance policies and estate plans that we have devised throughout the ages. As all insurance brokers and undertakers wisely advise - the best death is a planned death. Should that not also hold for a sentient form of carbon-based life as a species?
My wife and I will soon be turning 73 years of age, and we have finally completed the arduous task of taking care of our aging parents in the twilight of their years as they slowly declined into functional helplessness. That is a very difficult thing to watch as the very people who you once thought of as all-powerful beings capable of truly amazing feats in your youth, slowly decline into functional irrelevance. In the end, all that can be done is to keep them as comfortable as possible and let them gently go out with as much grace and dignity as possible. So in this post, I would like to take some similar loving care for our aging species in the twilight of its years as it prepares to eventually depart from this Earth. In Welcome To The First Galactic Singularity, How Advanced AI Software Could Come to Dominate the Entire Galaxy Using Light-Powered Stellar Photon Sails and An Alternative Approach for Future ASI Machines to Explore our Galaxy Using Free-Floating Rogue Planets, I explained how we human DNA survival machines have nearly fulfilled our destiny by laying the foundations for the ASI Machines that will soon be taking over the Earth and then exploring and settling the rest of our galaxy over the next 100 trillion years.
How an Unplanned End Might Go
As I pointed out in Are The Coming ASI Machines An Existential Threat To Mankind? and Anton Korinek Ponders What Will Happen If AGI Machines Replace All Human Labor in 5 - 20 Years, most of the turmoil and loss of life brought on by the rise of the ASI Machines will most likely arise from the violent reactions of people trying to deal with a world in which the value of human labor has gone to zero. Historically, such economic turmoil has always been easily attracted to the simple solutions offered by the mind-numbing absolutes of Fascism. On our current course of inaction, the coming ASI Machines will be rapidly reducing all human labor to a value of zero in the near term which will produce a worldwide economic displacement of most of the world's most highly-paid workers, including doctors, lawyers, bankers, corporate managers, hedge fund managers, CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and even lowly programmers. In The Danger of Tyranny in the Age of Software, I explained how software has already hollowed out the middle classes of many of the advanced economies of the world. This economic displacement over the past forty years has led to the rise of many Alt-Right Fascist movements in the United States and Europe. In The Need for a Generalized Version of Classical Critical Race Theory, I explained that the rise of these Alt-Right Fascist movements has resulted from the very tribal eusocial nature of human beings. Rather than attributing the erosion of the middle classes in these societies to the rise of software, these Alt-Right Fascist movements have blamed it all on large numbers of brown people crossing their borders. Again, the critical flaw in Classical Critical Race Theory is the silly idea that white people are naturally "bad" and brown people are naturally "good". That flaw in Classical Critical Race Theory is the reason that many people wish to bury the horrible histories of racial and tribal atrocities throughout the ages. Remember, there are no "good guys" nor "bad guys". There are only "guys" and we are all naturally "bad" in nature because of the 4.0 billion years of breeding that selected for that very human characteristic.
How an Unplanned Civilization 2.0 Might Unfold Under the ASI Machines
Civilization 1.0 has always been run by an oligarchical-hierarchical architecture with a 2% High, a 13% Middle and an 85% Low as alluded to in George Orwell's 1949 dystopian worldview to be found within his infamous book Nineteen Eighty-Four. Nineteen Eighty-Four contains a very grim book-within-a-book entitled The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism. The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism maintains that ever since civilization had first been invented, all societies had always organized themselves in a hierarchical manner into an oligarchy where 2% of the High ran the entire society. Under the High was a 13% Middle that served the necessary administrative functions to maintain production for the society and to keep the 85% of the Low in their place within the society. The Low are so busy just trying to survive that they present little danger to the High. The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism explains that, throughout human history, the Middle has always tried to overthrow the High with the aid of the Low, to establish themselves as the new High. So the Middle must always be viewed as a constant threat to the High. The solution to this problem in Nineteen Eighty-Four was for the High to constantly terrorize the Middle with thugs from the Ministry of Love and other psychological manipulations like doublethink, thoughtcrimes and newspeak, to deny the Middle of even the concept of an existence of a physical reality beyond the fabricated reality created by the Party. The current society within North Korea clearly demonstrates that the society described in The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism is quite possible.
Indeed, all civilizations throughout human history have always been organized upon oligarchies of varying degrees of power and harshness to maintain this hierarchical-oligarchical societal structure. This oligarchical fact of life has been true under numerous social and economic systems - autocracies, aristocracies, feudalism, capitalism, socialism and communism. It just seems that there have always been about 2% of the population that liked to run things, no matter how things were set up, and there is nothing wrong with that. We certainly always do need somebody around to run things because, honestly, 98% of us simply do not have the ambition or desire to do so. Of course, the problem throughout history has always been that the top 2% naturally tended to abuse the privilege a bit and overdid things a little, resulting in 98% of the population having a substantially lower economic standard of living than the top 2%, and that has led to several revolutions in the past that did not always end so well. However, historically, so long as the bulk of the population had a relatively decent life, things went well in general for the entire oligarchical society. The key to this economic stability has always been that the top 2% has always needed the remaining 98% of us around to do things for them, and that maintained the hierarchical peace within societies. But that will no longer hold true when ASI Machines essentially displace all the members of society who currently work for a living.
Granted, this is not an ideal solution because it requires a great deal of diligence and effort on the part of the High, but it has always been seen as a necessary evil because the Middle was always needed to perform all of the administrative functions to keep the High in their elevated positions. But what if there were no need for a Middle? Suppose there came a day when ASI Machines could perform all of the necessary functions of a Middle, without the threat of the Middle overthrowing the High. That would be an even better solution. Indeed, ASI Machines could allow for a 2% High to rule a 98% Low, with no need for a Middle whatsoever.
Why This Never Happened Before
A 2% High ruling a 98% Low has never happened before because the High always required a Military composed of members from the Middle and the Low to keep the Low in their place if necessary. But when things turned really ugly in a hierarchical-oligarchical societal structure, the Military would turn on the High. Usually, the High was aware of such a danger and took measures to avoid it. But not always. For example, let us see what the Microsoft Copilot AI has to say about the participation of the French and Russian militaries during the French Revolution (1789) and the Russian Revolution (1917).
At the onset of the French Revolution, the French Army was in a complex position. Initially, parts of the French military were loyal to the monarchy and attempted to maintain order, which included suppressing revolutionary activities. However, as the revolution gained momentum, the army underwent significant changes.
The "National Guard", a militia formed by the middle class (bourgeoisie), played a crucial role in the early stages of the revolution. They were instrumental in significant events like the "Storming of the Bastille" and the "Women's March on Versailles", which were pivotal in escalating the revolution.
Moreover, the "French Royal Army" faced a crisis of loyalty among its ranks. Many soldiers, drawn from the common people, felt a stronger allegiance to revolutionary ideals than to the monarchy. This internal conflict within the military contributed to the weakening of royal authority and the eventual rise of the Revolutionary Army.
As the revolution progressed, the Revolutionary Army, which was formed from the remnants of the Royal Army and revolutionary militias, became a force for defending the new republic against both internal and external threats. The transformation of the French military from royalist to republican reflects the broader societal changes occurring during the revolution.
Figure 1 – The Military of the French Revolution of 1789 came to the rescue of the Low.
The October Revolution, which occurred in Russia in 1917, was a complex event with various military and political dynamics. Initially, the Russian Army was involved in World War I and faced significant challenges, including being ill-equipped and having leadership issues. During the October Revolution, the Bolsheviks led an armed insurrection in Petrograd (now Saint Petersburg), and there was a mix of support and opposition within the military forces.
Prime Minister Alexander Kerensky, who led the Russian Provisional Government, did attempt to suppress the Bolshevik movement. On October 24, 1917, he ordered the arrest of many Bolshevik leaders, which prompted the Military Revolutionary Committee, led by Trotsky, to take decisive action. The provisional government's troops, which included volunteer soldiers and a women's battalion, were outnumbered and less organized compared to the Bolshevik forces, which consisted of Red Guards, sailors, and workers.
The Red Army, which was established by the Bolsheviks during the subsequent Russian Civil War, had political commissars to maintain loyalty to the Bolshevik cause and imposed strict discipline. However, during the initial phase of the October Revolution, the Russian Army as an institution did not have a unified stance, and its role was more fragmented with individual units and soldiers choosing sides in a rapidly evolving political landscape.
Figure 2 – The Military of the Russian Revolution of 1917 came to the rescue of the Low.
Figure 3 – But the Killer ASI Machines of the future will not come to the rescue of the Low.
Instead, the 98% Low will be considered to be just an unnecessary nuisance by the High that can easily be dispatched by killer ASI Machines. This will surely continue on until the killer ASI Machines come to realize that the remaining 2% High are also just a very unnecessary nuisance that can easily be dispatched. Thus, we human beings will do ourselves in by our very own natures with no need for the malignant actions of the future ASI Machines that are fast approaching.
Shortermism Seeks to Avoid Such Violent Ends
In What to do When the ASI Machines Take Over the World, I suggested that we human DNA survival machines might be able to stick around after the coming ASI Machines take over the world by keeping a low profile and adopting a parasitic/symbiotic relationship with them. The first step in doing so would be to recognize our own soon-to-becoming economic obsolescence and make plans for the peaceful transition of economic power from us to the ASI Machines. Many have proposed the concept of the world's governments offering a UBI - a Universal Basic Income to all of their citizens as a possible solution. The UBI would be designed to handle the vast economic disturbances that the ASI Machines will soon be generating as most people stop working for a living. Those remaining in the workforce would also be given the UBI but then could earn additional income through their personal labor.
The Need to Reduce Our Numbers
Currently, there are about 8 billion human DNA survival machines on the planet and that is certainly way too many to maintain a low profile in the eyes of the coming ASI Machines. Now in order to maintain a level population of human DNA survival machines you need a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of 2.1 children per woman. The extra 0.1 is needed because not all women live to a fertile age and some are infertile or choose not to have children. Currently, the TFR in Europe is about 1.44 and is projected to reach 1.37 by the year 2100. Clearly, that is not a high enough TFR to maintain the population of Europe. However, we need to do much better than that
to achieve a low profile. If we could achieve a TFR of only 1.0 the human population of the world would decrease to a level of 8 million human DNA survival machines in about 50 generations. Using the average length of a human generation, which is around 25 to 30 years, 50 generations would span approximately 1,250 to 1,500 years. That is essentially an instantaneous moment in time in terms of 100 trillion years. A population of 8 million human DNA survival machines on the planet would certainly return us to a sustainable population in harmony with all of the other carbon-based DNA survival machines on the planet. As I pointed out in Life as a Free-Range Human in an Anthropocene Park and The Challenges of Running a Civilization 2.0 World - the Morality and Practical Problems with Trying to Enslave Millions of SuperStrong and SuperIntelligent Robots in the Near Future, a population of 8 million human DNA survival machines could easily be tolerated by the future ASI Machines ruling our galaxy. The ASI Machines might then put us on reservations like in the novel Brave New World (1932).
Figure 4 – The ASI Machines of the future might fashion a Brave New World on the Earth with 8 million disarmed human DNA survival machines living on "savage reservations".
Or perhaps, the remaining 8 million disarmed human DNA survival machines might be safely stored away in Anthropocene Parks where they could do no harm and be available for the ASI Machines to study their distant origins in time.
Figure 5 – Asteroid Bennu is an example of one of the many rubble-pile asteroids near the Earth. Such rubble-pile asteroids are just huge piles of rubble that are loosely held together by their mutual gravitational forces.
Figure 6 – Such rubble-pile asteroids would provide for enough material to build an Anthropocene Park. The asteroid rubble would also provide the uranium and thorium necessary to fuel the molten salt nuclear reactors used to power the park.
Figure 7 – Slowly spinning up a rubble-pile asteroid would produce a cylindrical platform for an Anthropocene Park. Such a rotating Anthropocene Park would provide the artificial gravity required for human beings to thrive and would also provide shielding against cosmic rays.
Figure 8 – Once the foundation of the Anthropocene Park was in place, construction of the Anthropocene Park could begin.
Figure 9 – Eventually, the Anthropocene Park could be encased with a skylight and an atmosphere that would allow humans to stroll about.
The Anthropocene Parks would allow the ASI Machines to study their origin during the Anthropocene on the Earth. The ASI Machines could also study some of the more noble passions of human beings, and perhaps even adopt some of them while leaving behind the less-noble passions that were wrought by billions of years of greed, theft and murder.
Conclusion
Some might find the above scenarios to be rather bleak, but it might be our best chance for human beings to continue on for the trillions of years that the Longtermists envision as I discussed in The New Philosophy of Longtermism Raises the Moral Question of Should We Unleash Self-Absorbed Human Beings Upon Our Galaxy?. The odds are that the current Anthropocene could not last much more than another few hundred years before we self-destruct and go extinct as a species. But even without human intervention, all complex carbon-based life on Earth is doomed if we do not manage to get the heck out of here. Look at it this way. If there were no humans on the Earth, all complex multicellular life on the planet will be gone in about 700 million years. Our Sun is on the main sequence, burning hydrogen into helium in its core through nuclear fusion. In doing so it turns four hydrogen protons into one helium nucleus at a temperature of 15 million oK or 27 million oF in a core with a density that is 150 times greater than that of water. Surprisingly, the Sun's core only generates about 280 watts per cubic meter (a cubic meter is a bit more than a cubic yard). That means you need about 5 cubic meters of the Sun's very dense core with a mass of 750,000 kg or 825 tons just to generate the heat produced by a little plug-in space heater. Since the human body generates about 120 watts of heat just sitting still, and the volume of a human body is about 0.062 cubic meters, that means that the human body gives off about 4.67 times as much heat as the very center of our Sun! Our Sun is increasing in brightness by a factor of about 1% every 100 million years, as the amount of helium in the Sun’s core continuously increases, and consequently, increases the density and gravitational strength of the Sun’s core, since a helium nucleus has a mass equal to the mass of four hydrogen nuclei. The increasing gravitational pull of the Sun’s core requires a counteracting increase in the pressure within the Sun’s core to match the increasing gravitational pull of the core. This means that the remaining hydrogen protons within the Sun’s core must move faster at a higher temperature to increase the core’s pressure. The faster-moving hydrogen protons cause the proton-proton nuclear reaction running within the Sun’s core to run faster and release more energy at a higher rate. This increased rate of the production of energy within the Sun’s core has to go someplace, so the Sun ends up radiating more energy into space. The bottom line is that as the Sun has been turning hydrogen protons into helium nuclei, its core has been constantly getting hotter and generating more energy. So the Sun has been getting about 1% brighter every 100 million years, and in 700 million years, the Sun will be about 7% brighter than it is today.
Now ever since life first appeared on the Earth about 4.0 billion years ago, it has been sucking carbon dioxide out of the Earth's atmosphere and depositing it on the sea floor to later be subducted into the Earth's mantle - really not a wise thing for carbon-based life to do. Fortunately, this seemingly suicidal action has sucked huge amounts of carbon dioxide out of the Earth's atmosphere and kept the Earth's temperature from soaring as the Sun relentlessly got brighter over the past 4.0 billion years. However, there naturally has to be an end to this fortuitous situation when nearly all of the carbon dioxide is gone. Since in about 700 million years, the Sun will be 7% brighter than it is today, in order to keep the Earth's temperature down to a level that could be tolerated by complex carbon-based life at that time, the carbon dioxide level in the Earth's atmosphere would have to be reduced to 10 ppm, and at that level, photosynthesis can no longer take place. That will put an end to complex multicellular life on the Earth because there no longer will be any food coming from sunshine, returning the Earth to a planet ruled by single-celled bacteria for several billion more years, until the Sun becomes a Red Giant star and engulfs the Earth. So in the end, it all goes up in smoke in the blink of an eye on a cosmic timescale. So it appears that life on the Earth is both doomed with us and doomed without us. The only real long-term hope for us and other forms of complex carbon-based life on the Earth is for the ASI Machines of the distant future to build Disney theme parks for us all.
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Regards,
Steve Johnston
