As you all know, I am obsessed with the fact that we see no signs of Intelligence in our Milky Way galaxy after more than 10 billion years of chemical evolution that should have brought forth a carbon-based or machine-based Intelligence to dominate the galaxy. All of the science that we now have in our possession would seem to indicate that we should see the effects of Intelligence in all directions but none are to be seen. Such thoughts naturally lead to Fermi's Paradox first proposed by Enrico Fermi over lunch one day in 1950:
Fermi’s Paradox - If the universe is just chock full of intelligent beings, why do we not see any evidence of their existence?
I have covered many explanations in other postings such as: The Deadly Dangerous Dance of Carbon-Based Intelligence, A Further Comment on Fermi's Paradox and the Galactic Scarcity of Software, Some Additional Thoughts on the Galactic Scarcity of Software, SETS - The Search For Extraterrestrial Software, The Sounds of Silence the Unsettling Mystery of the Great Cosmic Stillness, Last Call for Carbon-Based Intelligence on Planet Earth and Swarm Software and Killer Robots. The explanations for Fermi's Paradox usually fall into one of two large categories:
1. They really are out there but for some reason, we just cannot detect them.2. We are truly alone in the Universe or at least we are alone in the Milky Way galaxy.
I have always thought that the first category of explanations was rather weak because it meant that all forms of Intelligence in the Milky Way galaxy were intentionally, or unintentionally, hiding for one reason or another. The second category implies that our Universe is not very friendly to Intelligence of any kind. True, Intelligence could be rather rare, but more likely, our Universe is just a very dangerous place for Intelligence. Recently, I have come to the conclusion that the simplest explanation is that carbon-based Intelligences always kill themselves off before a machine-based Intelligence can arise. For more on that see Why Do Carbon-Based Intelligences Always Seem to Snuff Themselves Out?.
But What If They Really Are Already Here?
So in this posting, I would like to address the first category of explanations by relating my adventures with Professor J. Allen Hynek and Frank Drake while I was in high school. Professor J. Allen Hynek is most famous for being the scientific advisor for the United States Air Force studies on UFOs - Project Sign (1947–1949), Project Grudge (1949-51) and Project Blue Book (1952–1969). He also developed the Close Encounter scale for classifying UFO observations. In fact, he later became a technical consultant for Steven Spielberg's UFO movie Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977) that was named after one of the levels in Professor Hynek's Close Encounter scale. He made a cameo appearance in the film. At the end of the film, as the aliens disembark from their huge spaceship, he can be seen stepping forward to view their arrival in amazement.
Figure 1 - Above we see Professor Hynek in his cameo appearance in Steven Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977).
J. Allen Hynek
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Allen_Hynek
Frank Drake is most famous for the Drake Equation (1961) that tries to calculate the number of technologically advanced Intelligences in our Milky Way galaxy.
The Drake equation is:
N = Rs * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible and:
Rs = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
The original estimates of the above variables used back in 1961 yielded a probable range of there currently being between 1,000 and 100,000,000 technologically advanced civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. I would suggest that nearly all of those advanced civilizations would be machine-based Intelligences running Advanced AI software on Advanced AI hardware, having superseded the carbon-based Intelligences that brought them forth. For more on Frank Drake and the Drake Equation see:
Frank Drake
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Drake
Drake Equation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
My Time at the Astro-Science Workshop of the Chicago Adler Planetarium
Professor Hynek received a Ph.D. in astrophysics from the University of Chicago's Yerkes observatory in 1935. In 1936, he joined the Physics and Astronomy Department at Ohio State. During World War II, he worked on developing the radio proximity fuse for the Navy. After the War he returned to the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Ohio State, rising to full professor in 1950. In 1956, he joined the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory with the assignment of directing the tracking of the first American space satellite to be launched for the International Geophysical Year in 1957. In addition, he was the scientific advisor for the United States Air Force studies on UFOs - Project Sign (1947–1949), Project Grudge (1949-51) and Project Blue Book (1952–1969).
In 1964, he joined the astronomy department of Northwestern University as the department chair. While at Northwestern, in 1964, he also created the Astro-Science Workshop at the Chicago Adler Planetarium with funding from the National Science Foundation. The Astro-Science Workshop met every Saturday morning during the school year for junior and senior high school students in the Chicago area. The Astro-Science Workshop consisted of a lecture by a visiting astronomy professor from one of 10 participating Midwestern astronomy departments. Then the class went on to a Lab Section with Harry Heckathorn, one of Professor Hynek's graduate students.
Harry Heckathorn
https://whatsupmag.com/news/towne-salute/harry-heckathorn/
During the Lab Section, Harry Heckathorn went over the assigned astronomy problems from the previous week and explained what the next problem set was all about. Meanwhile, the guest speaker had coffee and donuts with the Queen Mother of the
Astro-Science Workshop, Miss Letitia Lestina. Miss Letitia Lestina was the true organizational force behind the Astro-Science Workshop who made it all work. After the Lab Section, the guest lecturer returned for a final question and answer session with the class.
When I was a junior in high school back in 1967, I attended the weekly class of the Astro-Science Workshop, and I had a great time learning more about the astronomy of the 1960s. I had learned about the Astro-Science Workshop from some members of my high school astronomy club who had already taken the class. Then in the late summer of 1967, I received a phone call from Miss Letitia Lestina asking if I would be interested in showing the slides and making the coffee for the 1968 session of the Astro-Science Workshop for $5.00 a week. The $5.00 a week covered the cost of a round-trip train ticket to Chicago with a few cents to spare, so I jumped at the offer. In those days, the visiting professors would hand me a very heavy box of glass slides for the lecture. My job was to insert the glass slides into a Zeitz projector from the 1920s and then "slide" the next slide into position. This ejected the last slide out of the Zeitz projector for me to put back into the felt-lined notches of the slide box. I guess that is why they called them "slides". Each glass slide had a little white circle in the upper right corner so that I would not put the slide in upside down or backwards. The most important thing was to not drop the glass slides and break them! Being the projectionist and the refreshments steward gave me a chance to personally meet with each visiting professor at break time. Meeting Professor James Van Allen of the Van Allen Belts was the biggest thrill at the time, but in later years, I realized that showing slides and making coffee for Frank Drake was really the high point.
Figure 2 - Above is an antique glass slide projector like the Zeitz projector from the 1920s that I used at the Astro-Science Workshop. Notice the glass slides in the foreground. I was usually given a box with about 100 astronomical glass slides by the visiting astronomer. Notice the little white paper circle on the slide that has been taken out of the slide box. I would pick up the glass slide so that I was looking at the little paper circle and it was in my upper right. Then I would drop the slide that way into the slide holder that was sticking out of the projector. Then I would slide the new slide into position when instructed. That would push the old slide out of the projector and I would pick it out of the slide holder and return it to the glass slide box.
In December of 1968, Professor Hynek invited Frank Drake to give the annual Christmas Lecture for the Astro-Science Workshop in a lecture hall at Northwestern University. The Astro-Science Christmas Lecture was patterned after the famous Christmas Lecture of the Royal Society first instituted by Michael Faraday in 1825. In 1968, Frank Drake was only 38 years old and the Drake Equation had only been around since 1961. It was not generally known to the general public. So having Frank Drake as the speaker for the annual Christmas Lecture was a bit controversial as was all of SETI back in those days. It all took a bit of scientific courage at the time. Meanwhile, I had to worry about not putting in his slides upside down or backwards! We all do have our callings in life.
Additionally, each year Professor Hynek gave the Astro-Science Workshop a lecture on studying UFOs in a scientific manner. He introduced us to the Hynek Close Encounter scale and explained that when working for the Air Force, he plotted UFO sightings on a graph with the Hynek Close Encounter scale along the y-axis and Credibility plotted along the x-axis. The UFO observations that had a high value on the Hynek Close Encounter scale and a high Credibility value were of the most interest. He felt that all observational sciences like astronomy and geology needed to start by classifying observations. It always bothered him that the Air Force had already made up its mind about UFOs and only wanted him to come up with natural explanations for all UFO sightings. After all, people did not believe that stones could fall from the sky until physicist Jean-Baptiste Biot was sent by the Academy of Sciences to investigate a meteor shower over France from Alencon to L’Aigle that occurred on April 26, 1803. When he arrived in the area, numerous witnesses reported seeing a “globe of fire” and hearing a very loud explosion with cannon-like booms at about 1:00 PM.
“At L’Aigle … he found in the fields for nearly two square leagues, a great quantity of meteoric stones, which differed entirely from the mineralogical stones in the neighbourhood, or from any that had ever been seen in that part of the country. Some of them weighted fifteen pounds, and all of them, upon being broken, emitted a strong sulphureous smell. The stones themselves, together with the concurrent testimony of all ranks of the inhabitants in the neighbourhood, … put the fact beyond dispute.”
Note that in the above quote the author is using the original meaning of the term "meteoric" as something that fell from the sky like rain or hail. That is why meteorology is the scientific study of the Earth's weather and not the study of stones that fell from the sky. So once upon a time, the idea that stones could fall from the sky seemed absurd. How could stones possibly get up into the sky? Professor Hynek felt that the same could be said of UFO sightings. Just because your current worldview finds UFO sightings to be absurd, it does not mean that is so. For the two years that I knew Professor Hynek, I always found him to be a well-grounded scientist with an open mind.
A few years later in 1973, Professor Hynek founded the Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS) in Evanston, Illinois near Northwestern University. CUFOS advocates for the scientific analysis of UFO sightings and continues on today. Around that time, Professor Hynek began to suggest that UFO sightings were true physical phenomena like stones falling from the sky. He suggested that UFOs could be the sign of other Intelligences from within our Milky Way galaxy or they could arise from some other physical process that we have no knowledge of. I personally do not have much confidence in the idea that UFOs are expressions of alien Intelligences, but I grew a great respect for Professor Hynek during the two years I knew him, so I have to keep my mind open to the explanation.
Hynek Close Encounter Scale
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Close_encounter
This Man Sparked Spielberg's Interest in UFOs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIGQii6wA04
J. Allen Hynek Center for UFO Studies
http://www.cufos.org/
Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net
To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/
Regards,
Steve Johnston
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