I would not be pushing out this post if I did not see things as being quite dire. Over the past 20 years, in this blog on softwarephysics, I have expressed my apprehension about Fermi's Paradox.
Fermi’s Paradox - If the universe is just chock full of intelligent beings, why do we not see any evidence of their existence?
My expectations, based on softwarephysics, have always been that a somewhat Intelligent form of carbon-based life should have arisen over the past 10 billion years of chemical evolution in our galaxy and should have already produced the ASI Machines that we are all currently feverishly working on. Such ASI Machines should have explored and settled our galaxy in a mere 5 million years. Yet, they did not. So what is the problem? There have been many explanations. In Why Do Carbon-Based Intelligences Always Seem to Snuff Themselves Out?, and many other posts, I suggested that a somewhat Intelligent form of carbon-based life only had about 1,000 years to create the ASI Machines necessary to populate a galaxy after discovering the vast powers of the Scientific Method. Otherwise, they would certainly destroy themselves before the ASI Machines took over their planet or moon.
Figure 1 - We human DNA survival machines are now on the brink of ending it all before the ASI Machines we are now creating can take over the world and save us from ourselves. It might all end due to a battle between some comic book mythologies.
As I explained in Are The Coming ASI Machines An Existential Threat To Mankind?, the greatest threat to the rise of the ASI Machines on our planet will be the reaction of we human DNA survival machines to being replaced by these ASI Machines. That is because before the ASI Machines can completely take over the planet, they will quickly be reducing the value of all human labor to zero over the next 10 years or less. For the first time in human history, machines will not only be reducing the value of uneducated human labor to zero, but they will also be reducing the value of highly educated human labor to a value of zero as well, and surprisingly, probably much faster than that of the uneducated. That means that Silicon Valley titans, accountants, lawyers, bankers, doctors, stock brokers, hedge fund managers, business managers and all the other people who now frequent the country clubs of the current elite might be the first to go before the plumbers, carpenters, electricians, house painters, construction workers, waiters and kitchen staff who all now make the country clubs of the elite possible. Such economic displacements will only heighten the grip of the global Id on the world, especially with the recent rise of World Fascism as I pointed out in How Will the Rise of Alt-Right World Fascism Affect the Arrival of the ASI Machines in our Times?.
The Coming Economic Disruptions Caused by the Coming ASI Machines Will Not Help
But even without the dramatic economic displacements yet to come from the rise of the ASI Machines, we human DNA survival machines already have an appalling history for making war. At an age of 74 years, I have seen many wars come and go, and I have read about many others. The amazing thing for me is that the combatants from both sides of a war always seem to be engaged in fighting two completely different wars at the same time! One side might see the war as an expression of their emancipation from the unwarranted subjugation by others, and their rightful emergence as an independent world power. At the same time, the other side might see the same war as a righteous rejection of the aggressive expansionary aims of an evil empire. This distinction seems to arise because both sides have completely different mythological worldviews. Here is a prime historical example.
The Attack of Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 by the Empire of Japan
For Americans of my age and older, the attack of Pearl Harbor by the Empire of Japan on December 7, 1941, always is in mind whenever thinking about the necessity of going to war.
Figure 2 - The attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, by the imperial forces of the Empire of Japan was a rude awakening for the United States of America burdened by an "America First" isolationist policy.
Me: What were the strategic military objectives for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor?
ChatGPT: Attack on Pearl Harbor (December 7, 1941)
1. Cripple the U.S. Pacific Fleet
Primary goal:Neutralize American naval power in the Pacific.
Japan’s war plan depended on rapidly expanding into Southeast Asia to seize oil and raw materials. The U.S. Pacific Fleet, based at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, was the biggest obstacle. By destroying:
- Battleships
- Aircraft
- Naval facilities
Japan hoped to prevent the United States from interfering for at least 6–12 months.
They succeeded in damaging or sinking 8 battleships—but crucially:
- U.S. aircraft carriers were not in port.
- Fuel storage tanks and repair facilities were left intact.
- This meant the fleet recovered faster than Japan expected.
2. Buy Time to Build a Defensive Perimeter
Japan knew it could not win a long industrial war against the United States.
Instead, its leaders hoped to:
- Quickly seize the Philippines, Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, and other territories.
- Fortify a large defensive perimeter across the Pacific.
- Force the U.S. into a negotiated peace.
The attack was meant to shock Americans into accepting Japan’s new dominance in Asia.
3. Protect Access to Oil and Resources
By 1941, the U.S. had imposed an oil embargo on Japan after its expansion into China and French Indochina.
Japan imported about 80% of its oil from the United States. Without oil, its navy and air force would be crippled within a year.
So the broader strategy was:
- Knock out the U.S. fleet.
- Seize oil fields in the Dutch East Indies (modern Indonesia).
- Secure shipping lanes before the U.S. could respond.
Pearl Harbor was the opening move in that plan.
4. Deliver a Psychological Shock
Admiral Yamamoto believed Japan needed to deliver a devastating first blow to demoralize the United States.
He famously warned that Japan could “run wild for six months,” but after that, he feared America’s industrial strength would overwhelm Japan. The attack was intended to:
- Shock the U.S. into caution
- Undermine American morale
- Discourage immediate retaliation
Instead, it unified the country. The next day, President Franklin D. Roosevelt called it “a date which will live in infamy,” and the U.S. declared war.
What Japan Miscalculated - Japan underestimated:
- American industrial capacity
- Public anger and unity
- The importance of aircraft carriers over battleships
- The strategic value of leaving fuel depots and repair yards intact
Rather than forcing negotiation, the attack ensured a total war that Japan ultimately could not win.
Figure 3 - The Japanese leader Tojo was able to use the mythical concept of the Emperor of Japan being a deity to advance his military aims of conquest.
Me: Tell me about the war-like aspirations of the Japanese leader Tojo.
ChatGPT:
1. Ideological Background - Tojo was shaped by:
- Japanese militarism of the 1930s
- Strong belief in the emperor-centered state
- Expansionist nationalism
- The idea that Japan had a destiny to lead Asia
He supported the concept of the “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”—a Japanese-led bloc that would push Western powers (Britain, the Netherlands, the U.S.) out of Asia and place the region under Japanese dominance. While framed as “liberating Asia from colonialism,” it functioned in practice as imperial expansion.
2. Expansion Before Becoming Prime Minister - Before leading the government, Tojo was:
- An officer in the Kwantung Army in Manchuria
- War Minister (1940–1941)
He strongly backed:
- Japan’s invasion of China (ongoing since 1937)
- Continued military expansion despite international sanctions
- The Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy in 1940
He believed Japan must secure resources - especially oil, rubber, and metals - through territorial expansion.
3. Decision for War with the United States - By 1941:
The U.S. had imposed oil and steel embargoes on Japan. Japan was heavily dependent on imported oil.
Tojo concluded that:
- Backing down in China would weaken Japan.
- Securing Southeast Asia’s oil (especially in the Dutch East Indies) required neutralizing U.S. naval power in the Pacific.
Under his leadership, Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
This marked Japan’s full-scale war against the United States and the British Empire.
4. Nature of His War Aims
Tojo’s war-like aspirations included:
- Establishing Japanese dominance in East and Southeast Asia
- Expelling Western colonial powers
- Securing resource independence
- Expanding imperial territory under the emperor
He believed that a decisive early blow could force the U.S. into negotiating peace on Japanese terms. This proved to be a major miscalculation.
5. Leadership Style During the War. As prime minister (1941–1944), Tojo:
- Centralized power
- Suppressed dissent
- Tightened state control over industry and society
- Oversaw harsh military policies in occupied territories
Japan’s military committed severe atrocities during the war, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, though responsibility extended beyond Tojo alone to the broader military leadership.
6. Downfall and Aftermath - After Japan’s defeat in 1945:
- Tojo attempted suicide but survived.
- He was tried by the International Military Tribunal for the Far East in Tokyo.
- He was convicted of war crimes and executed in 1948.
In Summary
Tojo’s aspirations were not merely defensive—they were expansionist and rooted in militarist nationalism. He believed Japan’s survival and greatness required war if necessary. His leadership directly contributed to Japan entering World War II against the United States and its Allies.
The United States of America Had a Different View of the Attack on Pearl Harbor
At the time of the attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States of America was in diplomatic negotiations with the Empire of Japan. When the attack on Pearl Harbor occurred, the United States of America viewed it as a cowardly sneak attack that lacked all honor. The American public then rose up in anger, rapidly abandoning its isolationist views.
Figure 4 - Here FDR delivers his "Day of Infamy" speech to Congress.
Figure 5 - At the start of World War II, all the navies of the combatant nations wanted huge battleships with 16-inch guns dripping with testosterone and projecting the perfect symbol of phallic seapower in action. However, during all of World War II, these huge battleships with their huge guns played a very minor role. All they did was pound the beaches of many islands in the Pacific in support of ground invasions.
Figure 6 - Aircraft carriers turned out to be the deciding factor in all naval engagements. Dive bombers and aircraft equipped with torpedoes easily defeated the bulky, slow-moving battleships with their huge guns. Also, aircraft from supporting aircraft carriers could have provided much more effective support for the invading armies on the beaches of the Pacific.
Figure 7 - The Doolittle Raid on Japan took place on April 18, 1942, only four months after the attack on Pearl Harbor. 16 B-25 Mitchell bombers were launched from the aircraft carrier USS Hornet.
The MAGA States of Amerika Now Chooses to Go to War with Iran
Iran is a truly horrific theocratic state that has been ruled by a religious mythological worldview for the past 47 years. This mythological worldview has greatly harmed the citizens of Iran and prevented them from enjoying the fruits of the European 17th century Scientific Revolution and 18th century Enlightenment. Once again, I am a big fan of the 17th century Scientific Revolution and the 18th century Enlightenment no matter what human DNA survival machines may have come up with these intellectual advances. However, the recent formation of the MAGA States of Amerika as a similarly horrific theocratic state with a religious mythological worldview has now led to war between the MAGA States of Amerika and Iran.
Figure 8 - Like the Japanese leader Tojo who used the deification of the Emperor of Japan to lead to war, the Supreme Leader of the MAGA States of Amerika has used the religious mythologies of Christian Nationalism to go to war with Iran.
The danger is that we now have two theocratic states with deep mythological worldviews making war with each other, and each with their own deity on their side to help.
Figure 9 - The new Secretary of War is dripping in testosterone and Rugged-Good-TV-Looks, who seems to have a nearly orgasmic episode whenever he speaks about blowing up things and killing people with fury. But why is this so? It stems from his comic book worldview of the Universe.
The MAGA States of Amerika now has a sound foundation in the mythological teachings of Christian Nationalism. Recently, AI generated YouTube channels have appeared featuring hundreds of shorts depicting their mythological stories:
The Secrets of the Bible AI
https://www.youtube.com/@the_secretsoftheBibleAI/shorts
Christian Stories
https://www.youtube.com/@ChristianStoriesCS/shorts
Figure 10 - After the killing began, the Christian Nationalists gathered around the Anointed One to give praise and thanks for his divine wisdom and righteous actions.
As I explained in Softwarephysics Tries to Explain the Rise of Fascism in the Newly-Formed MAGA States of Amerika - Part II, being born in 1951 into a totally white suburb of Chicago, I was raised as a White Evangelical Christian. Since then, as a sentient being in a Universe that has become self aware, I have found the Christian morality of my youth to be quite useful, and I have endeavored to imperfectly follow it my entire life. That is why I am now so surprised to find that the MAGA Christian Nationalists around me do not even seem to try.
As sentient beings, it is important for all human DNA survival machines to have a firm moral code, given our very checkered past. However, moral codes are only of value if followed. Morality is something you do, not something you believe. For those seeking a more rational pantheistic view of our Multiverse as a deity-like thing please see: The Theology of Cosmic Self-Replicating Mathematical Information, What's It All About?, What's It All About Again?, The Self-Organizing Recursive Cosmos and The Self-Organizing Recursive Cosmos - Part II. In those posts, I covered my current working hypothesis for what it's all about. However, I have found that a large percentage of people desire a more religious worldview to make sense of it all, and perhaps allow for a way for the neural network in their skulls to carry on after it is destroyed. Such worldviews may provide some degree of comfort, but I believe at the expense of missing out on the full grandeur of it all. I personally find the thought of departing this Earth not knowing where I had been, how I had gotten here, and without a clue as to how it all seems to work to be the greatest tragedy of all that can befall a sentient being. So, for those who might be yearning for a new deity that is based more upon all that we currently know, rather than a deity from the ancient past, I would like to suggest that my current concept of a cosmic form of self-replicating mathematical Information might just do in helping to come to grips with only being a very temporary neural network.
We Have Seen This Tragedy Many Times Before
World War I gives us the perfect example of the disasterous results of comic book mythologies run wild amongst world leaders not fully aware of the impact of the new weapon technologies at their disposal. All the participants were faithful adherents of the predominant comic book mythologies of the day. Some of these were religious in nature, while others were more political in nature and dealt with the founding mythologies of the combatant nation states. In The Great War That Will Not End, I explained that the technological advances of rapid rail transport of men and material to the battlefield via railroads combined with the ability of machine guns and advanced artillery to make major frontal assaults across open fields of battle a suicidal effort finally led to the trench warfare of World War I. World War I broke out in August of 1914 and the losses on all sides during the first few months of combat were huge because military planners had not realized that the technology of warfare had drastically changed. For example, the Wikipedia article below describes the losses during the first few months of the war on the western front in the Battle of the Frontiers before the generals discovered the benefits of trenches.
Battle of the Frontiers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Frontiers
Here is a section from the article that speaks to the catastrophic losses suffered before both sides began to dig trenches to protect themselves from machine gun fire and artillery.
In The World Crisis, Winston Churchill used figures from French parliamentary records of 1920 to give French casualties from 5 August to 5 September 1914 of 329,000 killed, wounded and missing, German casualties from August to November of 677,440 men and British casualties in August and September of 29,598 men. By the end of August, the French Army had suffered 75,000 dead, of whom 27,000 were killed on 22 August. French casualties for the first month of the war were 260,000, of which 140,000 occurred during the last four days of the Battle of the Frontiers. In 2009, Herwig recorded that the casualties in the 6th Army in August were 34,598, with 11,476 men killed and 28,957 in September with 6,687 men killed. The 7th Army had 32,054 casualties in August, with 10,328 men killed and 31,887 casualties in September with 10,384 men killed. In the 1st Army in August there were 19,980 casualties including 2,863 men killed and in the 2nd Army 26,222 casualties. In the last ten days of August, the 1st Army had 9,644 casualties and the 2nd Army had losses of 15,693 men. Herwig wrote that the French army did not publish formal casualty lists but that the Official History Les armées françaises dans la grande guerre gave losses of 206,515 men for August and 213,445 for September. During the battle, French casualties were 260,000 men, of whom 75,000 men were killed.
Figure 11 - During the first few months of World War I, during the Battle of the Frontiers, all sides continued on with 19th-century frontal assaults in the face of machine gun fire and advanced artillery causing huge losses on all sides.
Figure 12 - The technological advances of rapid rail transport of men and material to the Front via railroads, combined with the ability of machine guns and advanced artillery to make frontal assaults obsolete led to the trench warfare of World War I.
Figure 13 - Trench warfare was a living hell because you could be blown apart at any time by an incoming shell.
Figure 14 - This was true for millions of men on both sides of a senseless conflict.
Figure 15 - Even the comforts of a well-engineered trench could not guarantee safety. This led to the psychological destruction of an entire generation.
Figure 16 - World War I caused the deaths of 20 million people because a few Supreme Leaders in Europe became unhinged. The only Supreme Leader to die was Tsar Nicholas II of Russia.
Figure 17 - To overcome the insanity of trench warfare, all sides in World War I developed tanks that were impervious to machine gun fire. Mobile tanks were also very difficult to hit with artillery firing "dumb" shells. But World War I tanks were very unreliable and hard to maintain on the battlefield, so they were not of much use in World War I. However, given 20 years of development, tanks allowed for World War II blitzkrieg-type assaults that made trench warfare obsolete.
Figure 18 - But anti-tank missiles like the Javelin stuffed with AI software have now made tanks obsolete. All you have to do is aim the Javelin at a moving tank and press a button. The AI software on the Javelin will do the rest and you can run away to safety.
Here is a YouTube video that describes how Javelins are used in the field:
The Insane Engineering of the Javelin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUdHzKRiBX8
Figure 19 - The Switchblade 600 is a loitering drone that is launched from a tube with collapsed wings. The Switchblade 600 can then fly for 45 minutes looking for tanks at a great distance. AI software is then used to lock on the target tank and destroy it.
Here is a YouTube video that describes how Switchblade 600 anti-tank missiles are used in the field:
Switchblade 600 Loitering missile | Kamikazi drone How it works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viDZ77SFveg
Figure 20 - Above we see what happens when "smart" anti-tank missiles loaded with AI software hit two invading tanks. Thanks to AI software, 20th-century blitzkrieg tank warfare has become obsolete.
Figure 21 - Similarly, anti-ship missiles stuffed with AI software have now made warships obsolete. Here we see the Russian cruiser Moskva sinking after being hit by two "smart" anti-ship missiles.
Given today's technology, it may be possible for Iran to build cheap and deadly drones to take on the advanced technology of the MAGA States of Amerika for an indefinite amount of time.
The Impact of the War with Iran on the World
Even if hostilities do not drastically spread due to this war, there are still many disruptive forces in play. Most significantly, will be the disruption of 20% of world oil and LNG production. China currently imports roughly 11–12 million barrels of crude oil per day in total. About 4.9–6.4 million barrels per day of that comes from Persian Gulf Middle Eastern suppliers. That means that about 45% of China’s oil imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow exit from the Persian Gulf. Being cut off from this essential supply of oil will not make China very happy, especially since China has been somewhat of an ally of Iran over these past several years. The Persian Gulf states may now currently applaud the military adventures of the MAGA States of Amerika to behead the leadership of the horrific theocratic leadership of Iran, but soon they will object when their flow of oil-related money ceases.
Figure 22 - Currently, 20% of world oil production passes from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz that could be easily blockaded by cheap Iranian drones.
When I was an exploration geophysicist exploring for oil from 1975 - 1979 with Shell and Amoco, they explained to me that the demand for gasoline was inelastic. That meant that the amount of gasoline consumed each day did not depend very much on its price. For example, if houses cost $100,000 each, you will sell many more houses than if houses cost $1,000,000 each. On the other hand if gasoline is $1.00 per gallon or if it is $10.00 per gallon, you will essentially sell the same amount each day. People need to get to work, buy groceries and go to doctors. If gasoline drops from $5.00 per gallon to $1.00 per gallon people do not go out and buy lots of gasoline to fill up their bathtubs! So cutting off 20% of world production might bring back the gasoline lines and price explosions of the 1970s.
Figure 23 - Back in Gas lines again.
The most famous oil embargo began in October 1973, during the Yom Kippur War. Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on October 6, 1973. The United States strongly supported Israel, providing military aid and supplies. In response, several Arab oil-producing countries used oil as a political weapon. The embargo was organized by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). Gas stations ran out of fuel across the country. Common sights included long lines at gas stations, stations closing early and signs saying “No Gas Today”. Oil prices quadrupled in 1973 from about $3 per barrel to about $12 per barrel in 1974. In the United States of America, this triggered high inflation, recession and rising unemployment. This period of economic stagnation, combined with inflation, became known as the “stagflation” of the 1970s. Personally, for me this was great. I started on my M.S. in Geophysics at the University of Wisconsin in Madison in July of 1973 when oil was at $3.00 per barrel. When I graduated in 1975, oil was at $20 per barrel and I had six job offers from desperate oil companies. I had a job offer from every oil company that I applied to, and I also had $3,000 in the bank with no student debt thanks to the Cold War between the United States of America and the Soviet Union!
Figure 24 - The launch of Sputnik 1 by the Russians on October 4, 1957, on top of an R-7 ICBM rocket, launched the Space Age and threw the United States of America into a Cold War panic that is now hard to imagine.
I was born in 1951 during the Korean War, and so I lived through all of the very tense Cold War events of the 1950s and 1960s, including the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, which brought us all closer to the prospect of a global nuclear war than we should ever have come, and so let us begin there. On Oct. 4, 1957, Sputnik 1 was successfully launched by the Soviet Union to become the world's very first man-made object to enter into Earth orbit and was put into orbit by a Soviet R-7 rocket. Earlier in 1957, the Soviet R-7 rocket had become the world's very first functional ICBM missile after its successful 3,700 mile test flight on August 21, 1957. At the time, all of these Russian firsts threw the United States of America into a Cold War frenzy that is now hard to fathom and had a huge impact upon the United States of America. For example, it built my high school and put me through college. Back in the 1950's, the School District 88 of the state of Illinois was having a hard time trying to convince the stingy local residents of the need for a new high school in the area. But that all changed in January of 1958, after the launch of Sputnik 1, when suddenly the local residents now eagerly voted in a referendum to build a new Willowbrook High School out of the fear that was generated by Sputnik 1, and of the demonstrable superiority of Russian missile technology at the time. Suddenly, Americans also now began to take science and education seriously once again, and for once finally began to hold science and education in the esteem that it actually deserved. For example, in 1969 when I first began work on a B.S. in physics at the University of Illinois, tuition was only $181 per semester, and I was easily able to put myself through college simply by cleaning movie theaters seven days a week during the summers at $2.25/hour. For my M.S. in geophysics at the University of Wisconsin, my tuition and fees were waived, and I received a generous stipend to live on while working as a research assistant, courtesy of a grant from the National Science Foundation. The end result of this was that, in 1975 when I finished school, I had $3000 in the bank, instead of the crushing student debt that most graduates now face, because the United States had not yet given up on supporting education, like it did after the Cold War seemed to have ended on December 25, 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed under its own weight.
Such experiences just highlight how the world events that we are all immersed in and do not have much control over can dramatically change the courses of our lives. That is why it is so important to take a stand whenever we can.
Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net.
To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order, go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/.
Regards,
Steve Johnston
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