Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Quantum Computing and the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics

Sean Carroll is one of my most favorite physicists and the author of many popular books on theoretical physics. I have read all of his books, and I just finished his latest - Something Deeply Hidden : Quantum Worlds and the Emergence of Spacetime (2019). It is a wonderful explanation of the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics, and I highly recommend it for all IT professionals interested in quantum computing because it is a very accessible introduction to quantum mechanics in general from the perspective of the Many-Worlds Interpretation. The book also contrasts the Many-Worlds Interpretation with other interpretations like the Copenhagen Interpretation and the Hidden Variables Interpretation. Below is a YouTube lecture by Sean Carroll that serves as a good introduction to his new book.

A Brief History of Quantum Mechanics - with Sean Carroll
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hVmeOCJjOU

Recall that we took a deep dive into Hugh Everett's Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics in Quantum Computing and the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics by stepping page-by-page through Hugh Everett’s original 137-page Jan 1956 draft Ph.D. thesis in which he laid down the foundations for the Many-Worlds Interpretation. That post was a bit challenging, so I would recommend Something Deeply Hidden to resolve any confusion. The book also cleared up some of my misgivings about the Many-Worlds Interpretation.

The Challenge of Quantum Computing
Why is having an understanding of quantum mechanics important for those interested in pursuing quantum computing? I have a warning for those of you who are young enough to be around when quantum computers finally start to appear in corporate IT departments. That is because most IT professionals working today on software have not had to worry much about hardware since the 1960s. Long ago, people in software simply adopted a "logical" view of the underlying "physical" hardware that they used, and that allowed them to easily divorce themselves from the grubby details of storing "1s" and "0s" on something physical in nature. So when quantum computers finally start to roll into corporate IT departments it might be wise to look back to the 1950s when classical computers first rolled into the payroll departments of major corporations because, once again, you may then need to be a bit more concerned about the underlying hardware.

For example, back in the summers of 1973 and 1974, I was at the University of Wisconsin working on an M.S. in Geophysics. I was working with a team of graduate students who were collecting electromagnetic data in the field on a DEC PDP-8/e minicomputer. The machine cost about $30,000 in 1973 (about $176,000 in 2020 dollars) and was about the size of a large side-by-side refrigerator. The machine had 32 KB of magnetic core memory, about 2 million times less memory than a modern 64 GB smartphone. We actually hauled this machine through the dirt-road lumber trails of the Chequamegon National Forest in Wisconsin and powered it with an old diesel generator to digitally record electromagnetic data in the field. I did all of my preliminary modeling work in BASIC on the DEC PDP-8/e without a hitch while the machine was sitting peacefully in an air-conditioned lab. So I did not have to worry about the underlying hardware at all. For me, the machine was just a big black box that processed my software as directed. However, when we dragged this poor machine through the bumpy lumber trails of the Chequamegon National Forest, all sorts of "software" problems arose that were really due to the hardware. For example, we learned that each time we stopped and made camp for the day that we had to reseat all of the circuit boards in the DEC PDP-8/e. We also learned that the transistors in the machine did not like it when the air temperature in our recording truck rose above 90 oF because we started getting parity errors. We also found that we had to let the old diesel generator warm up a bit before we turned on the DEC PDP-8/e to give the generator enough time to settle down into a nice, more-or-less stable, 60 Hz alternating voltage.

Figure 1 – Some graduate students huddled around a DEC PDP-8/e minicomputer. Notice the teletype machines in the foreground on the left that were used to input code and data into the machine and to print out results as well.

This time, to form a "logical view" of the hardware, you will need to understand something about the foundations of quantum mechanics and that presents a bit of a challenge. The problem is that nobody really understands the foundations of quantum mechanics! By the "foundations of quantum mechanics", I mean the underlying processes that make it work. I took my very first quantum mechanics course back in 1970, and I vividly remember my physics professor telling me that "You never really understand quantum mechanics, you just get used to it". For example, the quantum hardware people will tell you that you will need to give your quantum computer enough time to complete a full run before checking its output. If you try to check what your code is doing before a run completes, you will ruin the entire run! And you will not be able to restart a paused run from the middle either. You will also not be able to use an IDE (Integrated Development Environment), like Eclipse or Microsoft's Visual Studio during development to step through your code. Instead, like back in the 1950s and 1960s, you will have to put lots of print statements in your code to review the processing flow after the run completes. Even that will not be of much help because it will appear as if your code ran through many parallel computers all at the same time! Debugging quantum code will make debugging multi-threaded code on clustered conventional computers look like child's play.

In Something Deeply Hidden, Sean Carroll explains how modern quantum mechanics was developed by Werner Heisenberg and Erwin Schrödinger in 1926. Then, in the 1920s and 1930s, everybody in the physics community came to an agreement on two fundamental findings:

1. Particles no longer had definite things like definite positions and velocities. Instead, there was a wavefunction for an isolated particle that described its position and velocity in terms of a probability distribution that could be obtained by squaring the amplitude of its wavefunction.

2. However, the wavefunction for an isolated particle did deterministically change with time according to the Schrödinger equation, so the Universe was still deterministic in nature.

For a brief introduction to quantum mechanics see Quantum Software. Sean Carroll then goes on to explain how those two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics allowed physicists to do many very useful calculations for quantum systems and also allowed us to develop many useful things like transistors. However, the problem was that the physics community of the 1920s and the 1930s could not come to an agreement on the underlying processes that allowed the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics to produce the very accurate calculations that predicted what was physically measured in the lab. Those underlying processes are now called the "foundations of quantum mechanics" and are described by a number of "Interpretations" of quantum mechanics. Sean Carroll then explains that after the 1930s the physics community frowned upon those who were interested in the foundations of quantum mechanics. Instead, those physicists interested in the foundations of quantum mechanics were simply told to "shut up and calculate" with the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics that all could come to an agreement on. I am sure that any of you who have ever worked for a major corporation or governmental agency can easily understand.

For those of you interested in quantum computing, it should also be noted that the more esoteric interpretations of quantum mechanics are now more important because the classic Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics no longer seems to carry the weight that it once did many long decades ago. For example, in Quantum Computing and the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics we covered Hugh Everett's Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics and in Is the Universe a Quantum Computer? we covered John Cramer's Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics. In order to explain the strange quantum-mechanical effects that we observe in the lab, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics relies on timelines in multiple parallel Universes, while the Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics relies on a Universe that features multiple timelines moving both forwards and backwards in time at the same time. Now to make it a bit easier to understand such phenomena, let us briefly review the Copenhagen Interpretation, the Many-Worlds Interpretation and the Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics. But to do that we need to know a bit about quantum mechanics and how physicists use the wave model to explain certain phenomena.

The Wave Model
The chief characteristic of the wave model is that waves tend to be everywhere, but nowhere in particular, at the same time and simultaneously explore all possible paths. To see a wave in action, drop a small pebble into a still pond of water containing many obstacles and watch the resulting waves spread out and reflect off the obstacles and interfere with each other before eventually reaching a particular destination near the edge of the pond.

In 1801, Thomas Young conducted a series of experiments with waves. First, using water waves in a shallow ripple tank, he demonstrated the concept of interference. When a water wave encounters a barrier with two slits, the ripples passing through the slits interfere with each other on the other side of the barrier (Figure 2). Where two crests intersect, the wave amplitude doubles in height, and where a crest meets a trough, the two waves cancel each other out entirely. Next, Young used a distant light source with two closely spaced slits in an opaque barrier. On the other side of the barrier, he placed a white projection screen. When light from the distant light source passed through the double-slit barrier, Young observed an interference pattern of alternating bright and dark fringes projected onto the screen which demonstrated the wavelike behavior of light.

Figure 2 – The interference pattern from two slits (click to enlarge)

You can easily repeat Young’s experiment with a piece of thin cloth. At night, hold up a single ply of a pillowcase in front of a distant light source, such as a far-off street light or the filament in your neighbor’s decorative front door light that uses a clear light bulb. Instead of a single diffuse spot of light shining through the pillowcase, you will see a pronounced checkerboard interference pattern of spots, because the weave of your pillowcase has both vertical and horizontal slits between the threads.

Figure 3 – You can see this interference pattern of photons if you look at a distant porch light through the mesh of a sheer window curtain or a pillowcase.

The Birth of Modern Quantum Mechanics
As we saw in Quantum Software, Erwin Schrödinger first developed the Schrödinger equation in the winter of 1926 to explain the strange behavior of electrons in atoms and the fact that the electrons only radiated light at certain frequencies when excited. The 1-dimensional version of this famous equation is:

-ħ²    ∂²Ψ  =  iħ ∂Ψ
──      ──            ──
2m    ∂x²            ∂t

In the above 1-dimensional Schrödinger equation, Ψ is called the wavefunction of a particle and is pronounced like the word “sigh”. In quantum mechanics, the wavefunction Ψ contains all of the information that can ever be known about the particle.

Now if the particle is just quietly sitting around on its own and not interacting with other particles, like an electron that has been sitting quietly in an atom for a billion years, it means the wavefunction Ψ should not be changing with time, and we can use the 1-dimensional time-independent version of the Schrödinger equation that does not have the time variable "t" in the equation:

-ħ²  d²ψ(x)   +   V(x) ψ(x)  =  E ψ(x)
──  ──────
2m     dx²

The lower-case wavefunction ψ is still pronounced like the word "sigh", but we use the lower-case ψ to signify that this is a time-independent wavefunction that does not change with time. When the 3-dimensional Schrödinger equation is solved for the hydrogen atom consisting of just one electron trapped by one proton in an electromagnetic well we get a number of quantized wavefunctions as solutions:

Figure 4 – The n=1 and n=2 orbitals or wavefunctions for the hydrogen atom.

The Strange Motion of Quantum Particles in Space and Time
Now for quantum particles like electrons or photons that are on the move we need to use Richard Feynman’s "sum over histories" approach to quantum mechanics. In Feynman's "sum over histories" approach to quantum mechanics, the wavefunction amplitude of an electron or photon is the same in all directions, like when you drop a pebble in a still pond, but the phase angles of the wavefunction will differ depending upon the path that is taken. So to figure out the probability of finding an electron or photon at a particular point, you have to add up the amplitudes and phases of all the possible paths that the electron or photon could have taken to reach the destination point. Although there are an infinite number of possible paths, the key insight is that most of the paths will be out of phase with each other and will cancel out like the destructive interference shown in Figure 2. This produces some rather strange experimental observations. Imagine a very dim source of photons or electrons that can fire one photon or electron at a time. If we fired the particles at a screen with two slits, as in Young’s experiment, we would expect to see a pattern similar to Figure 5 build up over time, based upon the particle model for electrons and photons.

Figure 5 – What common sense and the particle model would predict for a source that fires electrons or photons one at a time

However, what is actually observed is an interference pattern similar to Figure 6, even though the electrons or photons pass through the slits one at a time. According to quantum mechanics, the individual electrons or photons interfere with themselves as they go through both slits at the same time! This means that if your neighbor could turn down the light by his front door to a very low level, so that it only emitted one photon at a time, and your eye could record a long exposure image, you would still see a checkerboard pattern of light spots through your pillowcase, even though the photons went through the fabric mesh one at a time.

Figure 6 – We actually observe an interference pattern as each particle interferes with itself

Now here comes the really strange part. If we put detectors just in front of the slits so that we can record which slit the electron or photon actually passed through, and keep firing one particle at a time, the interference pattern will disappear, and we will see the pattern in Figure 5 instead. If we turn the detectors off, the interference pattern returns, and we see the pattern in Figure 6. For some reason, Nature will not allow us to observe electrons or photons behaving like particles and waves at the same time. It’s some kind of information thing again. But it gets worse. If we put the detectors at some distance behind the slits and turn them on, the interference pattern again disappears, but if we turn the detectors off, the interference pattern returns. Now, this is after the electrons or photons have already passed through the slits! How do they know whether to behave like a wave or a particle in advance, before they know if the detectors are on or off? In fact, experiments have been performed where the decision to turn the detectors on or off is not made until after the individual electrons or photons have already passed through the slits, but even so, if the detectors are turned on, the interference pattern disappears, and if the detectors are turned off, the interference pattern returns! This means that the present can change the past! This is the famous delayed-choice experiment proposed by John Wheeler in 1978 and actually performed by Alain Aspect and his colleagues in 1982. In another experiment, the detectors are placed beyond the observation screen to detect cloned photons that are created in a splitting process. By observing the cloned photons, it is possible to determine which slit an individual twin photon passed through after its twin has already hit the observation screen. When these distant detectors are turned on, the interference pattern once again disappears, and if the detectors are turned off, the interference pattern returns. Again, the decision to turn the detectors on or off can be made after the photons have already hit the observation screen. This means that the future can change the present!

In 1928, Paul Dirac combined quantum mechanics (1926) with the special theory of relativity (1905) and came up with a relativistic reformulation of the Schrödinger equation. Now, strangely, the solutions to Dirac’s equation predicted both the existence of electrons with a negative charge and positive mass-energy and also positrons, the antimatter equivalent of electrons, with a positive charge and a negative mass-energy. But in 1947 Richard Feynman came up with an alternate interpretation for Dirac’s positrons with negative mass-energy. Feynman proposed that positrons were actually normal electrons moving backwards in time! Recall that the full-blown wave function of an object with constant energy can be expressed as a time-independent wavefunction ψ(x) multiplied by a time-varying term:

Ψ(x, t)  =  e-iEt/ħ  ψ(x)

Now the solutions to Dirac’s equation predicted both the existence of electrons with positive mass-energy and also positrons, the antimatter equivalent of electrons, with negative mass-energy. For a particle with negative mass-energy, the above equation looks like:

Ψ(x, t)  =  e-i(-E)t/ħ  ψ(x)

but since:

-i(-E)t/ħ = -iE(-t)/ħ

Feynman realized that an equivalent equation could be written by simply changing the parenthesis yielding:

Ψ(x, t)  =  e-iE(-t)/ħ  ψ(x)

So a positron with negative mass-energy –E could mathematically be thought of as a regular old electron with positive mass-energy E moving backwards in time! Indeed, today that is the preferred interpretation. All antimatter is simply regular matter moving backwards in time.

Figure 7 – Above is a Feynman diagram showing an electron colliding with a positron, the antimatter version of an electron.

In Figure 7 we see an electron colliding with a positron, the antimatter version of an electron. When the two particles meet they annihilate each other and turn into two γ gamma rays. In the Feynman diagram, space runs along the horizontal axis and time runs along the vertical axis. In the diagram, we see an electron e- with negative charge and positive mass-energy on the left and a positron e+ with positive charge and negative mass-energy on the right. As time progresses up the vertical time axis, we see the electron e- and the positron e+ approach each other along the horizontal space axis. When the two particles get very close, they annihilate each other and we see two γ gamma rays departing the collision as time proceeds along the vertical time axis. But notice the red arrowheads on the red arrow lines in the Feynman diagram. The red arrowhead for the negative electron e- is moving upwards on the diagram and forward in time, while the positive positron e+ is moving downwards on the diagram and backwards in time! So in the diagram, the positive positron e+ is portrayed as an ordinary negative electron e- moving backwards in time!

The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
In 1927, Niels Bohr and Werner Heisenberg proposed a very positivistic interpretation of quantum mechanics now known as the Copenhagen Interpretation. You see, Bohr was working at the University of Copenhagen Institute of Theoretical Physics at the time. The Copenhagen Interpretation contends that absolute reality does not really exist. Instead, there are an infinite number of potential realities, defined by the wavefunction ψ of a quantum system, and when we make a measurement of a quantum system, the wavefunction of the quantum system collapses into a single value that we observe, and thus brings the quantum system into reality (see Quantum Software for more on wavefunctions). This satisfied Max Born’s contention that wavefunctions are just probability waves. The Copenhagen Interpretation suffers from several philosophical problems though. For example, Eugene Wigner pointed out that the devices we use to measure quantum events are also made out of atoms which are quantum objects in themselves, so when an observation is made of a single atom of uranium to see if it has gone through a radioactive decay using a Geiger counter, the atomic quantum particles of the Geiger counter become entangled in a quantum superposition of states with the uranium atom. If the uranium has decayed, then the uranium atom and the Geiger counter are in one quantum state, and if the atom has not decayed, then the uranium atom and the Geiger counter are in a different quantum state. If the Geiger counter is fed into an amplifier, then we have to add in the amplifier too into our quantum superposition of states. If a physicist is patiently listening to the Geiger counter, we have to add him into the chain as well, so that he can write and publish a paper which is read by other physicists and is picked up by Time magazine for a popular presentation to the public. So when does the “measurement” actually take place? We seem to have an infinite regress. Wigner’s contention is that the measurement takes place when a conscious being first becomes aware of the observation. Einstein had a hard time with the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics for this very reason because he thought that it verged upon solipsism. Solipsism is a philosophical idea from Ancient Greece. In solipsism, your Mind is the whole thing, and the physical Universe is just a figment of your imagination. So I would like to thank you very much for thinking of me and bringing me into existence! Einstein’s opinion of the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics can best be summed up by his statement "Is it enough that a mouse observes that the Moon exists?". Einstein objected to the requirement for a conscious being to bring the Universe into existence because, in Einstein’s view, measurements simply revealed to us the condition of an already existing reality that does not need us around to make measurements in order to exist. But in the Copenhagen Interpretation, the absolute reality of Einstein does not really exist. Additionally, in the Copenhagen Interpretation, objects do not really exist until a measurement is taken, which collapses their associated wavefunctions, but the mathematics of quantum mechanics does not shed any light on how a measurement could collapse a wavefunction.

The collapse of the wavefunction is also a one-way street. According to the mathematics of quantum mechanics a wavefunction changes with time in a deterministic manner, so like all of the other current effective theories of physics, they are reversible in time and can be run backwards. This is also true in the Copenhagen Interpretation, so long as you do not observe the wavefunction and collapse it by the process of observing it. In the Copenhagen Interpretation, once you observe a wavefunction and collapse it, you cannot undo the collapse, so the process of observation becomes nonreversible in time. That means if you fire photons at a target, but do not observe them, it is possible to reverse them all in time and return the Universe back to its original state. That is how all of the other effective theories of physics currently operate. But in the Copenhagen Interpretation, if you do observe the outgoing photons you can never return the Universe back to its original state. This can best be summed up by the old quantum mechanical adage - look particle, don’t look wave. A good way to image this in your mind is to think of a circular tub of water. If you drop a pebble into the exact center of a circular tub of water, a series of circular waves will propagate out from the center. Think of those waves as the wavefunction of an electron changing with time into the future according to the Schrödinger equation. When the circular waves hit the circular walls of the tub they will be reflected back to the center of the tub. Essentially, they can be viewed as moving backwards in time. This can happen in the Copenhagen Interpretation so long as the electron is never observed as its wavefunction moves forward or backward in time. However, if the wavefunction is observed and collapsed, it can never move backwards in time, so observation becomes a one-way street.

The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
In 1956, Hugh Everett working on his Ph.D. under John Wheeler, proposed the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics as an alternative. The Many-Worlds Interpretation admits to an absolute reality but claims that there are an infinite number of absolute realities spread across an infinite number of parallel universes. In the Many-Worlds Interpretation, when electrons or photons encounter a two-slit experiment, they go through one slit or the other, and when they hit the projection screen they interfere with electrons or photons from other universes that went through the other slit! In Everett’s original version of the Many-Worlds Interpretation, the entire Universe splits into two distinct universes whenever a particle is faced with a choice of quantum states, and so all of these universes are constantly branching into an ever-growing number of additional universes. In the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics, the wavefunctions or probability clouds of electrons surrounding an atomic nucleus are the result of overlaying the images of many “real” electrons in many parallel universes. Thus, according to the Many-Worlds Interpretation wavefunctions never collapse. They just deterministically evolve in an abstract mathematical Hilbert space and are reversible in time, like everything else in physics.

Because Einstein detested the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics so much, he published a paper in 1935 with Boris Podolsky and Nathan Rosen which outlined what is now known as the EPR Paradox. But to understand the EPR Paradox we need a little background in experimental physics. Electrons have a quantum mechanical property called spin. You can think of an electron’s spin like the electron has a little built-in magnet. In fact, it is the spin of the little electron magnets that add up to make the real magnets that you put on your refrigerator. Now in quantum mechanics, the spin of a single electron can be both up and down at the same time because the single electron can be in a mixture of quantum states! But in the classical Universe that we are used to, macroscopic things like a child's top can only have a spin of up or down at any given time. The top can only spin in a clockwise or counterclockwise manner at one time - it cannot do both at the same time. Similarly, in quantum mechanics, a photon or electron can go through both slits of a double-slit experiment at the same time, so long as you do not put detectors at the slit locations.

Figure 8 – A macroscopic top can only spin clockwise or counterclockwise at one time.

Figure 9 – But electrons can be in a mixed quantum mechanical state in which they both spin up and spin down at the same time.

Figure 10 – Similarly, tennis balls can only go through one slit in a fence at a time. They cannot go through both slits of a fence at the same time.

Figure 11 – But at the smallest of scales in our quantum mechanical Universe, electrons and photons can go through both slits at the same time, producing an interference pattern.

Figure 12 – Again, you can see this interference pattern of photons if you look at a distant porch light through the mesh of a sheer window curtain or a pillowcase.

When you throw an electron through a distorted magnetic field that is pointing up the electron will pop out in one of two states. It will either be aligned with the magnetic field (called spin-up) or it will be pointing 180o in the opposite direction of the magnetic field (called spin-down). Both the spin-up and spin-down conditions are called an eigenstate. Prior to the observation of the electron’s spin, the electron is in a superposition of states and is not in an eigenstate. Now if the electron in the eigenstate of spin-up is sent through the same magnetic field again, it will be found to pop out in the eigenstate of spin-up again. Similarly, a spin-down electron that is sent through the magnetic field again will also pop out as a spin-down electron. Now here is the strange part. If you rotate the magnetic field by 90o and send spin-up electrons through it, 50% of the electrons will pop out with a spin pointing to the left, and 50% will pop out with a spin pointing to the right. And you cannot predict in advance which way a particular spin-up electron will pop out. It might spin to the left, or it might spin to the right. The same goes for the spin-down electrons – 50% will pop out spinning to the left and 50% will pop out spinning to the right.

Figure 13 - In the Stern-Gerlach experiment we shoot electrons through a distorted magnetic field. Classically, we would expect the electrons to be spinning in random directions and the magnetic field should deflect them in random directions, creating a smeared out spot on the screen. Instead, we see that the act of measuring the spins of the electrons puts them into eigenstates with eigenvalues of spin-up or spin-down and the electrons are either deflected up or down. If we rotate the magnets by 90o, we find that the electrons are deflected to the right or to the left.

The EPR Paradox goes like this. Suppose we prepare many pairs of quantum mechanically “entangled” electrons that conserve angular momentum. Each pair consists of one spin-up electron and one spin-down electron, but we do not know which is which at the onset. Now let the pairs of electrons fly apart and let two observers measure their spins. If observer A measures an electron there will be a 50% probability that he will find a spin-up electron and a 50% chance that he will find a spin-down electron, and the same goes for observer B, 50% of observer’s B electrons will be found to have a spin-up, while 50% will be found with a spin-down. Now the paradox of the EPR paradox, from the perspective of the Copenhagen Interpretation, is that when observer A and observer B come together to compare notes, they find that each time observer A found a spin-up electron, observer B found a spin-down electron, even though the electrons did not know which way they were spinning before the measurements were performed. Somehow when observer A measured the spin of an electron, it instantaneously changed the spin of the electron that observer B measured. Einstein hated this “spooky action at a distance” feature of the Copenhagen Interpretation that made physics nonlocal, meaning that things that were separated by great distances could still instantaneously change each other. He thought that it violated the speed of light speed limit of his special theory of relativity that did not allow information to travel faster than the speed of light. Einstein thought that the EPR paradox was the final nail in the coffin of quantum mechanics. There had to be some “hidden variables” that allowed electrons to know if they “really” were a spin-up or spin-down electron. You see, for Einstein, absolute reality really existed. For Einstein, the apparent probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics was an illusion, like the random() function found in most computer languages. The random() function just points to a table of apparently random numbers that are totally predictable if you look at the table in advance. You normally initiate the random() function with a “seed” from the system clock of the computer you are running on to simulate randomness by starting at different points in the table.

However, in 1964 John S. Bell published a paper in which he proposed an experiment that could actually test the EPR Paradox. In the 1980s and 1990s, a series of experiments were indeed performed that showed that Einstein was actually wrong. Using photons and polarimeters, instead of the spin of electrons, these experiments showed that photons really do not know their quantum states in advance of being measured and that determining the polarization of a photon by observer A can immediately change the polarization of another photon 60 miles away. These experiments demonstrated that the physical Universe is non-local, meaning that Einstein’s "spooky action at a distance” is built into our Universe, at least for entangled quantum particles. This might sound like a violation of the special theory of relativity because it seems like we are sending an instantaneous message faster than the speed of light, but that is really not the case. Both observer A and observer B will measure photons with varying polarizations at their observing stations separated by 60 miles. Only when observer A and observer B come together to compare results will they realize that their observations were correlated, so it is impossible to send a message with real information using this experimental scheme. Clearly, our common-sense ideas about space and time are still lacking, and so are our current effective theories.

Hugh Everett solves this problem by letting the electrons be in all possible spin states in a large number of parallel universes. When observers measure the spin of an electron, they really do not measure the spin of the electron. They really measure in which universe they happen to be located in, and since everything in the Many-Worlds Interpretation relies on “correlated” composite wavefunctions, it should come as no surprise that when observer A and observer B come together, they find that their measurements of the electron spins are correlated. In the Many-Worlds Interpretation, Hugh Everett proposes that when a device, like our magnets above, measures the spin of an electron that is in an unknown state, and not in a spin-up or spin-down eigenstate, the device does not put the electron into a spin-up or spin-down eigenstate as the Copenhagen Interpretation maintains. Instead, the device and the electron enter into a correlated composite system state or combined wavefunction with an indeterminate spin of the electron. Hugh Everett explains how this new worldview can be used to explain what we observe in the lab. In fact, he proposes that from the perspective of the measuring magnets and the electron, two independent observational histories will emerge, one with the measuring magnets finding a spin-up electron and one with the measuring magnets finding a spin-down electron, and both of these will be just as “real” as the other. For them, the Universe has essentially split in two, with each set in its own Universe. That is where the “Many-Worlds” in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics comes from.

While doing research for The Software Universe as an Implementation of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis I naturally consulted Max Tegmark’s HomePage at:

http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/mathematical.html

and I found a link there to Hugh Everett’s original 137-page Jan 1956 draft Ph.D. thesis in which he laid down the foundations for the Many-Worlds Interpretation. This is a rare document indeed because on March 1, 1957, Everett submitted a very compressed version of his theory in his final 36-page doctoral dissertation, "On the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics", after heavy editing by his thesis advisor John Wheeler to make his Ph.D. thesis more palatable to the committee that would be hearing his oral defense and also to not offend Niels Bohr, one of the founding fathers of the Copenhagen Interpretation and still one of its most prominent proponents. But years later John Wheeler really did want to know what Niels Bohr thought of Hugh Everett’s new theory and encouraged Everett to visit Copenhagen in order to meet with Bohr. Everett and his wife did finally travel to Copenhagen in March of 1959 and spent six weeks there. But by all accounts, the meeting between Bohr and Everett was a disaster, with Bohr not even discussing the Many-Worlds Interpretation with Everett.

Below is the link to Hugh Everett’s original 137-page Jan 1956 draft Ph.D. thesis:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/manyworlds/pdf/dissertation.pdf

I have also placed his thesis on Microsoft One Drive at:

https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=21488ff1cf19c88b!1437&authkey=!ADIm_WTYLkbx90I&ithint=file%2cpdf

in Quantum Computing and the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, I step through the above document page-by-page and offer up a translation of the mathematics into easily understood terms.

Something Deeply Hidden Addresses Many of the Concerns That Arise From the Many-Worlds Interpretation
What I really loved about Something Deeply Hidden was that it greatly reduced many of my reservations about the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics. Like many, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics seemed to be just too extreme because it called for such a huge number of copies of our Universe. But Sean Carroll made a very good point. The Many-Worlds Interpretation is actually the most conservative interpretation of quantum mechanics because it only relies on the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics that all are in agreement on. Sean Carroll points out that the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics maintain that a single isolated particle has a wavefunction that changes with time according to the Schrödinger equation and that's all we need. For example, if you have an isolated electron, it can be in a superposition of quantum states such as being both spin-up and spin-down at the same time. If you have two isolated electrons that are interacting with each other then you will have 4 possible superpositions of quantum states at the same time. As you slowly increase the number of isolated interacting electrons, you will be continuously doubling the number of possible superpositions. So when you finally include all of the particles in our observable Universe, you find that you naturally end up with an isolated Universe composed of a large number of entangled particles. You also end up with a huge number of parallel Universes, each also consisting of a large number of entangled particles that do not interact with any of the other particles in the other parallel universes. This huge number of parallel Universes consisting of entangled particles naturally falls out of the two agreed upon fundamental findings of quantum mechanics. Now, the Many-Worlds Interpretation is the only interpretation of quantum mechanics that simply acknowledges that the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics are enough to explain all that we observe. All of the other interpretations of quantum mechanics are forced to add additional mechanisms to eliminate all of those parallel Universes that are naturally built into quantum mechanics. For example, the Copenhagen Interpretation manages to get rid of all the natural built-in parallel universes of quantum mechanics by collapsing the wave function of particles so that only one Universe remains.

Figure 14 - The two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics call for a universal wavefunction for the entire Universe with many parallel branches like the branches of a tree in the winter.

But the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics lead to the conclusion that there really is only one wavefunction for the entire Universe. The universe is not composed of a huge number of independent wavefunctions for each particle. All of the particles in any given branch of this "universal wavefunction" are all entangled together. The deeply visceral objection to the Many-Worlds Interpretation that most humans have is that we just do not feel like we are constantly branching into new copies of the Universe. Sean Carroll points out that this same objection arose to the Copernican heliocentric theory when it first appeared because we just do not feel like we are moving when standing still on the surface of the Earth. Similarly, we do not feel like the Universe is constantly branching on new branches of the universal wavefunction. However, when you look at the night sky something strange seems to be going on. First, it looks like all of the stars in the sky are uniformly moving on a large spherical dome in the sky once every day. Next, there are some really bright stars that are called planets that do not move at the same speed as the stars, and each planet moves relative to all of the others. Then, there is the Moon to deal with because it has phases and sometimes gets eclipsed or eclipses the Sun. These are difficult things to explain for a stationary Earth. However, with lots of effort, the ancients were able to come up with very complex explanations for all of these strange motions in the sky for a stationary Earth. Similarly, classical mechanics explained everyday motions of macroscopic objects quite nicely. Only when we started looking at very small things like atoms did things start to look strange. But we learned how to predict the strange behaviors of small particles with quantum mechanics in the 1920s and 1930s using the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics. Still, the behaviors of small particles seemed rather strange to us even if we could now at least predict how they would behave in a probabilistic manner. Essentially, the only way we could still keep the Earth seemingly motionless in a quantum mechanical sense was to pile on all sorts of funny adjustments to the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics with interpretations like the Copenhagen Interpretation. However, with the Many-Worlds Interpretation, all of those funny adjustments can be discarded. When you do that, all of the seemingly strange behaviors of small particles suddenly disappear. All you have to do is to accept that the universal wavefunction has branches. It's like suddenly accepting the strange idea that the Earth moves. If you can do that, all of the strange motions of the lights in the sky go away.

Figure 15 - We do not sense these parallel universes because we are like an ant climbing up the branches of a tree. To us, the tree seems like an old telephone pole with only a single branch.

To help with that realization, let's take a trip back in time. It is generally thought that the modern Scientific Revolution of the 16th century began in 1543 when Nicolaus Copernicus published On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, in which he proposed his Copernican heliocentric theory that held that the Earth was not the center of the Universe, but that the Sun held that position and that the Earth and the other planets revolved about the Sun. A few years ago I read On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres and found that it began with a very strange foreword that essentially said that the book was not claiming that the Earth actually revolved about the Sun, rather the foreword proposed that astronomers may adopt many different models that explain the observed motions of the Sun, Moon, and planets in the sky, and so long as these models make reliable predictions, they don’t have to exactly match up with the absolute truth. Since the foreword did not anticipate space travel, it also implied that since nobody will ever really know for sure anyway, because nobody will ever be able to see from above what is really going on, there is no need to get too bent out of shape over the idea of the Earth moving. This is very similar to the just "shut up and calculate" view of the Copenhagen Interpretation - don't worry too much about what is really going on with quantum mechanics - just use quantum mechanics to do calculations and develop useful things like transistors. I found this foreword rather puzzling and so disturbing that I almost put On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres down. But a little further research revealed the true story. However, before we get to that, below is the complete foreword to On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres in its entirety. It is well worth reading because it perfectly encapsulates the ongoing philosophical clash between positivism and realism in the history of physics.

"To the Reader
Concerning the Hypotheses of this Work

There have already been widespread reports about the novel hypotheses of this work, which declares that the earth moves whereas the sun is at rest in the center of the universe. Hence certain scholars, I have no doubt, are deeply offended and believe that the liberal arts, which were established long ago on a sound basis, should not be thrown into confusion. But if these men are willing to examine the matter closely, they will find that the author of this work has done nothing blameworthy. For it is the duty of an astronomer to compose the history of the celestial motions through careful and expert study. Then he must conceive and devise the causes of these motions or hypotheses about them. Since he cannot in any way attain to the true causes, he will adopt whatever suppositions enable the motions to be computed correctly from the principles of geometry for the future as well as for the past. The present author has performed both these duties excellently. For these hypotheses need not be true nor even probable. On the contrary, if they provide a calculus consistent with the observations, that alone is enough. Perhaps there is someone who is so ignorant of geometry and optics that he regards the epicycle of Venus as probable, or thinks that it is the reason why Venus sometimes precedes and sometimes follows the sun by forty degrees and even more. Is there anyone who is not aware that from this assumption it necessarily follows that the diameter of the planet at perigee should appear more than four times, and the body of the planet more than sixteen times, as great as at apogee? Yet this variation is refuted by the experience of every age. In this science there are some other no less important absurdities, which need not be set forth at the moment. For this art, it is quite clear, is completely and absolutely ignorant of the causes of the apparent nonuniform motions. And if any causes are devised by the imagination, as indeed very many are, they are not put forward to convince anyone that they are true, but merely to provide a reliable basis for computation. However, since different hypotheses are sometimes offered for one and the same motion (for example, eccentricity and an epicycle for the sun’s motion), the astronomer will take as his first choice that hypothesis which is the easiest to grasp. The philosopher will perhaps rather seek the semblance of the truth. But neither of them will understand or state anything certain, unless it has been divinely revealed to him.

Therefore alongside the ancient hypotheses, which are no more probable, let us permit these new hypotheses also to become known, especially since they are admirable as well as simple and bring with them a huge treasure of very skillful observations. So far as hypotheses are concerned, let no one expect anything certain from astronomy, which cannot furnish it, lest he accept as the truth ideas conceived for another purpose, and depart from this study a greater fool than when he entered it.

Farewell."


Now here is the real behind-the-scenes story. Back in 1539 Georg Rheticus, a young mathematician, came to study with Copernicus as an apprentice. It was actually Rheticus who convinced the aging Copernicus to finally publish On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres shortly before his death. When Copernicus finally turned over his manuscript for publication to Rheticus, he did not know that Rheticus subcontracted out the overseeing of the printing and publication of the book to a philosopher by the name of Andreas Osiander, and it was Osiander who anonymously wrote and inserted the infamous foreword. My guess is that Copernicus was a realist at heart who really did think that the Earth revolved about the Sun, while his publisher, who worried more about the public reaction to the book, took a more cautious positivistic position. Similarly, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics maintains that the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics really explain the whole thing, while the other interpretations of quantum mechanics find that the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics are just mainly useful for making calculations for how quantum systems are observed to behave.

The last few chapters of Something Deeply Hidden describes a very interesting new research program to investigate quantum gravity from a new perspective. Instead of trying to quantize Einstein's general theory of relativity, this new research program tries to derive the general theory of relativity from the two fundamental findings of quantum mechanics by portraying spacetime as an emergent phenomenon that naturally arises from the wavefunction of the Universe. Recall that emergent phenomena are things like the temperature and pressure of a gas. The temperature and pressure of the gas are not fundamental phenomena. They are really just the macroscopic effects of gas molecules bouncing around in a container and that bouncing around is actually governed by the rules of quantum mechanics.

Although Sean Carroll is a strong advocate for the Many-Worlds Interpretation, he does maintain that those working on the foundations of quantum mechanics need to keep an open mind to other explanations. So let's finish up with another interpretation of quantum mechanics that also holds that wavefunctions really do exist.

The Transactional Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
In Is the Universe a Quantum Computer? I covered John Cramer's Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics and compared it to TCP/IP transactions on the Internet. In an email exchange with John Cramer, I learned that such a comparison had never been done before. Now in the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics, the wavefunctions Ψ of particles and photons are not “real” waves, they are only probability waves – just convenient mathematical constructs that don’t “really” exist. But in Cramer’s Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics, the wavefunctions Ψ of particles and photons really do exist. For a physics student new to quantum mechanics, this is truly a comforting idea. Before they teach you about quantum mechanics, you go through a lengthy development of wave theory in courses on classical electrodynamics, optics, and differential equations. In all these courses, you only deal with waves that are mathematically real, meaning that these waves have no imaginary parts using the imaginary number i where i2 = -1. But in your first course on quantum mechanics, you are introduced to Schrödinger’s equation:

-ħ²    ∂²Ψ  =  iħ ∂Ψ
──      ──            ──
2m    ∂x²            ∂t

and learn that generally, the wavefunction solutions to Schrödinger’s equation contain both real and imaginary parts containing the nasty imaginary number i. Consequently, the conventional wisdom is that the wavefunction solutions to Schrödinger’s equation cannot really exist as real tangible things. They must just be some kind of useful mathematical construct. However, in the same course, you are also taught about Davisson and Germer bouncing electrons off the lattice of a nickel crystal and observing an interference pattern, so something must be waving! I would venture to suggest that nearly all students new to quantum mechanics initially think of wavefunctions as real waves waving in space. Only with great coaxing by their professors do these students “unlearn” this idea with considerable reluctance.

As we saw previously, the imaginary parts of wavefunctions really bothered the founding fathers of quantum mechanics too. Recall that in 1928, Max Born came up with the clever trick of multiplying the wavefunctions Ψ by their complex conjugates Ψ* to get rid of the imaginary parts. To create the complex conjugate of a complex number or function, all you have to do is replace the imaginary number i with –i wherever you see it. According to Born’s conjecture, the probability of things happening in the quantum world are proportional to multiplying the wavefunction by its complex conjugate Ψ*Ψ. Mathematically, this is the same thing as finding the square of the amplitude of the wavefunction. Now earlier in this posting, I mentioned how Richard Feynman pointed out that instead of thinking of positrons having negative mass-energy, you could also think of positrons as regular electrons with negative charge moving backwards in time by shifting the position of the “-“ sign in the wavefunction of a positron. But that is just the same thing as using the complex conjugate Ψ* of an electron wavefunction for a positron. So mathematically, we can think of the complex wavefunction of a particle Ψ* as the wavefunction of the particle moving backwards in time. Cramer suggests that Born’s idea of Ψ*Ψ representing the probability of a quantum event is not just a mathematical trick or construct, rather it is the collision of an outgoing “retarded” wave Ψ moving forwards in time with an incoming Ψ* “advanced” wave moving backwards in time. Essentially, John Cramer's Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics sees the collision of outgoing “retarded” waves Ψ moving forwards in time with incoming Ψ* “advanced” waves moving backwards in time.

The Transactional Interpretation easily explains all of the apparent paradoxes of quantum mechanics. As we have seen, there is actual experimental evidence that electrons and photons seem to “know” in advance what they will encounter on the other side of a double-slit experiment. This is easily explained by the Transactional Interpretation. The electrons or photons send out retarded waves into the future which interact with whatever lies beyond the slits. If there are detectors that are turned on, the retarded waves interact with them, if there are no detectors, the waves interact with some electrons on a projection screen instead. In either case, an advanced wave is sent backwards in time from the detectors or the projection screen to the point of origin of the electrons or photons so that they “know” how to behave before they get to the two-slit screen.

Will We Ever Really See Quantum Computers?
I can still remember my very first encounter with a computer on Monday, Nov. 19, 1956, watching the Art Linkletter TV show People Are Funny with my parents on an old black and white console television set that must have weighed close to 150 pounds. Art was showcasing the 21st UNIVAC I to be constructed and had it sorting through the questionnaires from 4,000 hopeful singles, looking for the ideal match. The machine paired up John Caran, 28, and Barbara Smith, 23, who later became engaged. And this was more than 40 years before eHarmony.com! The UNIVAC I first came out in 1951 and was 25 feet by 50 feet in size. It contained 5,600 vacuum tubes, 18,000 crystal diodes and 300 electromechanical relays with a total memory of 12 KB.

Figure 16 – The UNIVAC I was very impressive on the outside.

Figure 17 – But the UNIVAC I was a little less impressive on the inside.

Prior to 1955 computers, like the UNIVAC I, used mercury delay lines for computer memory. A mercury delay line consisted of a tube of mercury that was about 3 inches long. Each mercury delay line could store about 18 bits of computer memory as sound waves that were continuously refreshed by quartz piezoelectric transducers on each end of the tube. Mercury delay lines were huge and very expensive per bit so computers like the UNIVAC I only had a memory of 12 KB.

Figure 18 – Prior to 1955, huge mercury delay lines built from tubes of mercury that were about 3 inches long were used to store bits of computer memory. A single mercury delay line could store about 18 bits of computer memory as a series of sound waves that were continuously refreshed by quartz piezoelectric transducers at each end of the tube.

In 1955 magnetic core memory came along, and used tiny magnetic rings called "cores" to store bits. Four little wires had to be threaded by hand through each little core in order to store a single bit, so although magnetic core memory was a lot cheaper and smaller than mercury delay lines, it was still very expensive and took up lots of space.

Figure 19 – Magnetic core memory arrived in 1955 and used a little ring of magnetic material, known as a core, to store a bit. Each little core had to be threaded by hand with 4 wires to store a single bit.

Figure 20 – Magnetic core memory was a big improvement over mercury delay lines, but it was still hugely expensive and took up a great deal of space within a computer.



Figure 21 – Finally in the early 1970s inexpensive semiconductor memory chips came along that made computer memory small and cheap.

So guess what? We have actually been using quantum computers for more than 50 years because we have been using quantum mechanical transistor-based computers for that period of time! Seriously, if you had shown me a 64 GB smartphone back in 1956 I would not have believed it to be physically possible. In fact, I still have a hard time believing how far hardware has progressed over the years. So don't bet against quantum computers coming to be in your lifetime.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Swarm Software and Killer Robots

As you all know, I am obsessed with the fact that we see no signs of Intelligence in our Milky Way galaxy after more than 10 billion years of chemical evolution that should have brought forth a carbon-based or silicon-based Intelligence to dominate the galaxy. In Last Call for Carbon-Based Intelligence on Planet Earth, I explained my Null Result Hypothesis to explain Fermi's Paradox. Basically, my Null Result Hypothesis states that the Milky Way galaxy has yet to produce a form of Intelligence that can make itself known to the rest of the galaxy because the conditions necessary to bring forth a carbon-based Intelligence are also the very same conditions that provide kill mechanisms that are 100% efficient at eliminating carbon-based Intelligences. In that posting, I suggested that messing with the carbon cycle of a planet could be one of those kill mechanisms that all forms of carbon-based Intelligences are subject to. For example, our planet is currently dying because we are messing with the carbon cycle of the Earth and everybody is pretending that it is not. The Right loves fossil fuels and is pretending that catastrophic Climate Change is simply not happening. The Left is pretending that wind and solar can solve the problem all on their own. And the Middle is concerned with other issues that they find more pressing. However, this will take some time to accomplish. In that posting, I also pointed out that we have been sitting on the solution to this dire problem for more than 60 years. All we need to do is to replace all of our carbon-based fuels with molten salt nuclear reactors that could burn thorium and uranium for hundreds of thousands of years. Since carbon-based life seems to require small amounts of elements with atomic numbers greater than that of iron-56, carbon-based life should always also have small amounts of thorium and uranium available to fuel advanced technologies. That is because elements with nuclei heavier than iron-56 are generated by stellar supernova explosions and by colliding neutron stars. For more on that see:

The Alchemy of Neutron Star Collisions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmgMboWunkI&t=695s

So it is rather hard to believe that all carbon-based Intelligences extinguish themselves by messing with their planet's carbon cycle. Surely, some must follow a nuclear route using thorium and uranium and eventually fusing deuterium. This means that there must be additional kill mechanisms to be found within the conditions necessary to bring forth carbon-based Intelligence.

Another Possible Kill Mechanism
In Is Self-Replicating Information Inherently Self-Destructive?, I discussed the possibility that carbon-based Intelligent life might be self-destructive as most forms of self-replicating information tend to be. Similarly, in Susan Blackmore's brilliant TED presentation at:

Memes and "temes"
https://www.ted.com/talks/susan_blackmore_on_memes_and_temes

Susan Blackmore points out that each additional form of self-replicating information that arises on a planet presents a new danger that could snuff out Intelligences in our galaxy. Note that I consider Susan Blackmore's temes to really be technological artifacts that contain software. After all, a smartphone without software is simply a flake tool with a very dull edge. Perhaps carbon-based Intelligences that do not do themselves in by messing with the carbon cycle of their home planet never successfully make the transition to silicon-based Intelligence for other reasons. Perhaps silicon-based AI does them in before silicon-based AI reaches a full level of Intelligence. For more on that see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information.

The February 2020 issue of Scientific American features an article entitled Autonomous Warfare that discusses just such a possibility. The article discusses the imminent danger of killer robot swarm software and that we currently have all of the necessary silicon-based hardware and AI software to do the job. The following two videos raise all of the pertinent issues:

Sci-Fi Short Film "Slaughterbots" presented by DUST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU

Why We Should Ban Lethal Autonomous Weapons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=LVwD-IZosJE&feature=emb_logo

In The Danger of Tyranny in the Age of Software and Fascism and the Internet of Things, I pointed out that the rise of Alt-Right Fascist movements around the world was being primarily fueled by automation software displacing jobs and warned of the dangers that advanced surveillance software on the Internet of Things could produce in the hands of authoritarian societies. Now imagine totally automated factories churning out billions of totally automated killer robot drones instead of billions of smartphones! Perhaps in a Terminator-like (1984) manner, huge swarms of self-replicating killer robots could do us all in before silicon-based AI can achieve a level of Intelligence that can make itself known to the rest of the galaxy.

In Last Call for Carbon-Based Intelligence on Planet Earth, I attributed the messing with the carbon cycle of a planet to the inherent selfishness of all forms of self-replicating information. But I also pointed out that selfish carbon-based Intelligences can redirect their inherent selfishness into positive actions that do not mess with the carbon cycle of their planet. That is because the delusion of consciousness gives agency to selfishness. A selfish conscious Intelligence can channel selfishness into actions that are not necessarily self-destructive. For more on that see The Ghost in the Machine the Grand Illusion of Consciousness.

However, it seems that the one thing that conscious carbon-based Intelligences may not be able to avoid is the regrettable legacy that results from billions of years of carbon-based life forms chomping on each other. Yes, all forms of self-replicating information have to be a little bit nasty in order to survive, but carbon-based life forms seem to take this to an extreme. I love watching nature documentaries by David Attenborough, but watching natural selection at work can certainly be a rather gruesome business. I would argue that all carbon-based Intelligences must come with a built-in tendency to kill other carbon-based life forms. This is neither a good nor bad thing. It is just a necessary thing to bring forth carbon-based Intelligence. Strangely, the people who are trying to ban killer robots make the argument that only "moral" carbon-based Intelligences, like human beings, should make the final decision to kill others! I attribute such delusional reasoning to the shared delusion of consciousness that likely comes with carbon-based Intelligence. It may ultimately be the reason why "moral" carbon-based Intelligences build killer robots in the first place.

More information on this topic is available at:

BAN LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS
https://autonomousweapons.org/

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots
https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/

This is Not a Time to Despair
Yes, all of this could be viewed in a rather depressing manner, but on the other hand, it gives us an extraordinary opportunity. As the latest form of carbon-based Intelligence to appear in the Milky Way galaxy, we can learn from all of the past forms of carbon-based Intelligences that have failed. Just do not do things like mess with the carbon cycle of the planet or create killer robot swarm software. At all times, we need to be keenly aware of the fact that over the past 10 billion years all other carbon-based Intelligences within our galaxy did not make it. In order to do this, we need to always remember that we are a product of self-replicating information and that we carry all of the baggage that comes with self-replicating information. That is why, if you examine the great moral and philosophical teachings of most religions and philosophies, you will see a plea for us all to rise above the selfish self-serving interests of our genes, memes and software.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Saturday, December 07, 2019

The Unintended Consequences of Good People Trying to do the Right Thing

Most of us are very familiar with the popular quote, "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." and we have all probably used that quote in a moralistic sense during political debates with our friends and relatives. But the problem has always been what exactly do you mean by the terms "evil" and "good men"? If you have been around for a while, you probably know that, surprisingly, the concepts of "evil" and "good men" vary greatly depending on whom you talk to. In fact, we cannot even come to an agreement on who first uttered the quote. Was it Edmund Burke, R. Murray Hyslop, Charles F. Aked or John Stuart Mill? Nobody really knows for sure.

I just finished watching the Senate Impeachment Trial and saw the United States Senate finally deliver its verdict. Being retired, I was able to watch the whole Impeachment process unfold in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. For me, it was a beautiful example of the unintended consequences of Good People trying to do the Right Thing. Now, I firmly believe that all of the participants were trying to do the Right Thing as they saw it. After 68 years, my observation is that all people always try to do the Right Thing as they see it. And if they cannot do the Right Thing, they then do the Necessary Thing to make the Right Thing ultimately happen. But that is the fundamental problem. At this point in life, I now only have confidence in Science and Mathematics. That is because all other forms of human thought seem to be fatally flawed by confirmation bias. All other forms of human thought are fatally flawed by the efforts of Good People trying to do the Right Thing, or the Necessary Thing, as they see it.

I am bringing up this issue because I think it directly bears on my last posting, Last Call for Carbon-Based Intelligence on Planet Earth. In that posting, I explained that the planet is dying and that everybody is pretending that it is not. The Right loves fossil fuels and is pretending that catastrophic Climate Change is simply not happening. The Left is pretending that wind and solar can solve the problem all on their own. And the Middle is concerned with other issues that they find more pressing.

My most favorite physicist of the 20th century, besides Albert Einstein, was Richard Feynman. Richard Feynman was an infamous character who is frequently quoted. My most favorite quote is, "The most important thing is to not fool yourself because you are the easiest one to fool.". Richard Feynman was also a member of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident that was headed by the former Secretary of State William Rogers. Richard Feynman was the person who uncovered the fact that the Challenger blew up because of a bad O-ring design that NASA Management knew about. The official Presidential Commission Report ended with Richard Feynman's Appendix F - Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle. The very last line of Appendix F is "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

That is a very important observation to keep in mind when searching for a solution to Climate Change - "for nature cannot be fooled". Robert Stone is a long-time environmentalist deeply concerned about Climate Change, who like me, was originally anti-nuclear. In fact, Robert Stone actually made an anti-nuclear documentary many years ago. However, in 2013, Robert Stone, like Jim Hansen, had a change of heart when it comes to advanced nuclear energy like molten salt nuclear reactors and he made this documentary:

PANDORA'S PROMISE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObcgG9vjUbs

I was 12 years old when President Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. I was walking to an English class when a friend coming from another class told me. I dearly loved President Kennedy at the time. Many years later, I learned that if President Kennedy had caved in during the Cuban Missile Crisis and had approved the Cuban invasion that all of his advisors wanted, that the Soviets had standing orders to launch their missiles at the United States! It seems that President Kennedy and his brother Robert were the only ones resisting an invasion. I was 17 when Robert Kennedy was assassinated in 1968, and I loved Robert Kennedy at the time too. They were both Good People trying to do the Right Thing.

Below is a YouTube video of his son, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. having a discussion with Robert Stone in front of an audience that had just watched Robert Stone's documentary PANDORA'S PROMISE. I think that it is an excellent example of two Good People trying to do the Right Thing.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. & Director of Pandora's Promise Spar Over Nuclear Power
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaP9GuGK8r4

But don't forget, no matter how good your intentions may be, "nature cannot be fooled". The planet is dying and we have run out of time. The energy densities of wind and sunlight are very low and very intermittent and physics makes it very hard to store them for when they are not there. We need a technology that does not try to fool nature with good intentions.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Last Call for Carbon-Based Intelligence on Planet Earth

In Hierarchiology and the Phenomenon of Self-Organizing Organizational Collapse, I explained that a major problem arises whenever a large group of people come together into any organizational structure. The problem is that no matter how things are set up, it just seems that there are always about 1% of the population that like to run things, and there is nothing wrong with that. We certainly always need somebody around to run things because, honestly, 99% of us simply do not have the ambition or desire to do so. Of course, the problem throughout history has always been that the top 1% naturally tended to abuse the privilege a bit and overdid things a little, resulting in 99% of the population having a substantially lower economic standard of living than the top 1%, and that has led to several revolutions in the past that did not always end so well. Now once a dominance hierarchy has been established, no matter how it is set up, another universal problem arises from the fact that:

1. People like to hear what they like to hear.

2. People do not like to hear what they do not like to hear.

Throughout human history, it seems that civilizations have always gotten into trouble once a dominance hierarchy has formed composed of a large number of individuals stubbornly adhering to the above in the face of desperate times. And I would like to suggest that this same universal phenomenon will naturally arise for any planet dominated by a carbon-based Intelligence. That is why in The Deadly Dangerous Dance of Carbon-Based Intelligence I offered up my Null Result Hypothesis as a possible explanation for Fermi's Paradox:

Fermi’s Paradox - If the universe is just chock full of intelligent beings, why do we not see any evidence of their existence?

Briefly stated:

Null Result Hypothesis - What if the explanation to Fermi's Paradox is simply that the Milky Way galaxy has yet to produce a form of interstellar Technological Intelligence because all Technological Intelligences are destroyed by the very same mechanisms that bring them forth?

By that, I mean that the Milky Way galaxy has not yet produced a form of Intelligence that can make itself known across interstellar distances, including ourselves. I then went on to propose that the simplest explanation for this lack of contact could be that the conditions necessary to bring forth a carbon-based interstellar Technological Intelligence on a planet or moon were also the same kill mechanisms that eliminated all forms of carbon-based Technological Intelligences with 100% efficiency. I then suggested that this kill mechanism might be the tendency for carbon-based Technological Intelligences to mess with their planet's or moon's carbon cycle as we seem to be doing today with the Earth. For more on that see This Message on Climate Change Was Brought to You by SOFTWARE. If true, this means that over the past 10 billion years, not a single form of carbon-based Intelligence has arisen in the Milky Way galaxy to become an interstellar Technological Intelligence. And given the limitations of carbon-based Intelligence, that also most likely means that no form of carbon-based Intelligence has successfully crossed over to a silicon-based Intelligence. This is a deeply disturbing finding because we now know that about 20% of the stars in the Milky Way have planets capable of sustaining carbon-based life. That comes to about 80 billion worlds in the Milky Way capable of sustaining carbon-based life. So even if carbon-based Intelligence is extremely rare, there should have been a huge number of carbon-based Intelligences crossing over to a silicon-based Intelligence over the past 10 billion years in the Milky Way. Yet, there appear to be none. For more on this please see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information and Is Self-Replicating Information Inherently Self-Destructive?

So How Are We Doing?
Well, instead of terraforming Mars we seem to have been venus-forming the Earth for the past several hundred years, ever since carbon-based Intelligence discovered technology.

Figure 1 – Ever since carbon-based Intelligence on the Earth discovered technology, carbon dioxide levels have been increasing.

Now, in 1992 at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro the world finally adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to tackle global climate change. The purpose of the treaty was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent the dangerous effects of climate change. Every year since 1995, the Convention of the Parties, or COP, has been held to report on the progress that has been made towards this objective. Currently, the world is coming together for the 25th annual meeting at COP25 in Madrid. But the sad fact is that, as we all know, nothing really has been done in the last 25 years to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Figure 2 – Despite the 1992 Rio, 1997 Kyoto, 2009 Copenhagen and the 2016 Paris agreements, the data show that nothing really has changed as a result of those efforts.

About 40 years ago, I was an exploration geophysicist exploring for oil, first with Shell and then with Amoco. But in 1979, I made a career change into IT and then spent about 40 years in IT working at various corporations. However, as a geophysicist by training, I have always been very concerned about climate change. A few weeks back, I watched Greta Thunberg's full speech from the U.N. Climate Action Summit at:

How dare you!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4WqLIFava4#t-1

and I was deeply moved. I now have five grandchildren, all 8 years old or younger, and being 68 years of age, I know that I have less than 20 years left. So I will not be around to see how this all works out. But all of the science that I know tells me that we have just about run out of time, as Greta Thunberg so wisely points out.

In her speech, Greta Thunberg pointed out that the greatest danger is that rising temperatures and acidification of the oceans will reach a tipping point and trigger geochemical processes with strong positive feedbacks that could take this all out of our powers to stop. For example, the Arctic is defrosting. That means there is less ice up north to reflect incoming high-energy visible photons. All the energy in those high-energy visible photons has to be radiated back into space as low-energy infrared photons on a daily basis to maintain equilibrium. But we are pumping carbon dioxide molecules into the atmosphere that prevent that from happening and that causes the air temperature to rise. Warmer air can hold many more water molecules than cooler air and water molecules are really good at absorbing infrared photons too adding to the problem. The rising air temperatures then make even more Arctic ice to melt. But the worst problem, by far, with the Arctic defrosting is methane gas. Methane gas is a powerful greenhouse gas. Eventually, methane degrades into carbon dioxide and water molecules, but over a 20-year period, methane traps 84 times as much heat in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. About 25% of current global warming is due to methane gas. Natural gas is primarily methane gas with a little ethane mixed in, and it comes from decaying carbon-based lifeforms. Now here is the problem. For the past 2.5 million years, during the frigid Pleistocene, the Earth has been building up a gigantic methane-bomb in the Arctic. Every summer, the Earth has been adding another layer of dead carbon-based lifeforms to the permafrost areas in the Arctic. That summer layer does not entirely decompose but gets frozen into the growing stockpile of carbon in the permafrost. The Earth has also been freezing huge amounts of methane gas as a solid called methane hydrate on the floor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane hydrate is a solid, much like ice, that is composed of water molecules surrounding a methane molecule frozen together into a methane hydrate ice. As the Arctic warms, this trapped methane gas melts and bubbles up to the surface. The end result is that if we keep doing what we are doing, there is the possibility of the Earth ending up with a climate having a daily high of 140 oF with purple oceans choked with hydrogen-sulfide producing bacteria, producing a dingy green sky over an atmosphere tainted with toxic levels of hydrogen sulfide gas and an oxygen level of only 12%, like the Earth had during the End-Permian greenhouse gas mass extinction 252 million years ago. Such a catastrophe might not cause the emerging carbon-based Intelligence of Earth to go extinct, but it most probably would put an end to our ability to make ourselves known to the rest of the Milky Way galaxy.

Figure 3 – Melting huge amounts of methane hydrate ice could release massive amounts of methane gas into the atmosphere.

So What to Do?
Now I love solar and wind power. In fact, I have been buying wind power electricity for the past 10 years. It costs about 50% more to generate, but I only use about 23% of the electricity that my neighbors use, so that only runs me about $240 per year. I also drive a hybrid car that gets 60 - 70 mpg in the summer and 40 - 50 mpg in the winter when the hybrid battery does not work as efficiently. My wife and I do not fly and we do not travel much now that we are both retired. If you want to see the world, just go on Street View of Google Maps and you can do all the sightseeing you want, like walking around the Eiffel Tower, or hiking along a trail in the Grand Canyon. Yes, I know that my efforts really do not make much of a difference, and that I just do these things to make myself feel a little bit better about the current situation. I also know that wind and solar have very low energy densities so that it takes a lot of windmills and solar panels to capture large amounts of energy. Currently, wind and solar only provide for about 4% of the world's energy consumption. I just don't think we have enough time left to go entirely to a solar and wind-powered world. We are driving 80 miles an hour into a concrete wall with only 100 feet left to brake! For example, in:

Roadmap To Nowhere - The Myth of Powering the Nation With Renewable Energy
https://www.roadmaptonowhere.com/

Mike Conley and Tim Maloney use the numbers from the 132-page report of the environmental Solutions Project that requires 18 billion square meters of solar panels and 500,000 5 MW wind turbines to supply all of the energy needs of the United States. Mike and Tim point out that once all of this infrastructure has been constructed on 132,000 square miles of land, we will need to replace 1.23 million square meters of solar panels and 80 of the 5 MW wind turbines every day, forever, as the solar panels and wind turbines wear out.

Figure 4 – The new GE 5 MW wind turbine is 500 feet tall, about the height of a 50 story building. We will need 500,000 of them and will need to replace 80 of them each day as they wear out in the future.

So obviously, what we have been doing thus far is clearly not working. The planet is dying and everybody is pretending that it is not. The Right loves fossil fuels and is pretending that there is no problem. The Left is pretending that the problem can be solved with wind and solar power alone. And the Middle has other concerns that they find more important. How can we change that? The first thing we need to do is to realize that all forms of carbon-based life are forms of self-replicating information that have been honed by 4.0 billion years of natural selection to be fundamentally selfish in nature. That is why most people around the world will not spend a nickel more on energy if they can avoid doing so. That is both a good thing and a bad thing. The bad thing is that most people will simply not spend a nickel more on solar or wind power to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. However, the good thing is that if we can come up with a source of energy that is cheaper than coal and other forms of carbon-based fuels, people will drop the carbon-based fuels like a hot potato all on their own. So I would like to recommend that we all take a look at molten salt nuclear reactors since they have the potential to produce energy at a much lower cost than carbon-based fuels and also could be easily mass-produced using far fewer material resources than solar or wind. Bringing in molten salt nuclear reactors should not be seen as a substitute for continuing on with solar, wind and fusion sources of energy. We just need a cheap form of energy that appeals to those still committed to carbon-based fuels. We also need an insurance policy in case it is found that wind and solar cannot do the job all on their own. Yes, I know that many of you may dislike nuclear energy because:

1. Nuclear reactors tend to explode and release radioactive clouds that can poison large areas for thousands of years.
2. Nuclear reactors produce nuclear waste that needs to be buried for 200,000 years and we do not know how to take care of things for 200,000 years.
3. Nuclear reactors produce plutonium that can be used for making atomic bombs.

Figure 5 – Currently, we are running 1950s-style PWR (Pressurized Water Reactors) with coolant water at 300 oC and 80 atmospheres of pressure.

Personally, the reason I have been buying wind-powered electricity for the past decade is that I had given up on nuclear energy as a possible solution. Nuclear reactors just seemed to require forever to build and were far too expensive to effectively compete with coal or natural gas. And nuclear reactors seemed to blow up every decade or so, no matter what the nuclear engineers did to make them safer. I also assumed that the nuclear engineers would have come up with something better over the past 60 years if such a thing were possible.

But, recently, I have learned that over the past 60 years, the nuclear engineers have indeed come up with many new designs for nuclear reactors that are thousands of times superior to what we have today. But because of many stupid human reasons that I will not go into, these new designs have been blocked for 60 years! And because nuclear reactions can produce 100 million times as much energy as chemical reactions, they may be our last chance. All of the problems we have with our current nuclear reactors stem from running PWR (Pressurized Water Reactors) that were designed back in the 1950s and early 1960s. Now, no business today relies on 1950s-style vacuum tube computers with 250 K of memory to run a business, but our utilities happily run 1950s-style PWR nuclear reactors! The good news is that most of the problems with our technologically-ancient PWR reactors stem from using water as a coolant. A cubic foot of water makes 1,000 cubic feet of steam at atmospheric pressure. That is why PWR reactors need a huge reinforced concrete containment structure to hold large amounts of radioactive steam if things go awry. Do you remember the second law of thermodynamics from Entropy - the Bane of Programmers and The Demon of Software? The efficiency of extracting useful mechanical work from a heat reservoir depends on the temperature difference between the heat reservoir and the exhaust reservoir.

Maximum Efficiency = 1 - TC/TH

where TC and TH are the temperatures of the cold and hot reservoirs measured in absolute oK. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that we need to run a nuclear reactor with the highest TH possible to make it as efficient as possible. So PWR reactors have to run with water at around 300 oC under high pressure to achieve some level of efficiency. For example, using TC as a room temperature of 72oF (295oK) and 300 oC (573oK) coolant water we get:

Maximum Efficiency = 1 - 295oK/573oK = 0.4851 = 48.51%

Recall that water at one atmosphere of pressure boils at 100 oC, so 300 oC coolant water has to be kept under a great deal of pressure so that it does not boil away.

Figure 6 – Above we see a plot of the boiling point of water as a function of pressure. From the above plot, we see that water at 300 oC must be kept under a pressure of 80 atmospheres of pressure! The air in your car's tires is under about 2.3 atmospheres of pressure.

The other major problem is that the centers of the solid fuel rods run at about 2,000 oC and have to be constantly cooled by flowing water or they will melt. Even if all of the control rods are dropped into the core to stop the fuel from further fissioning, the residual radioactivity in the fuel rods will cause the fuel rods to melt if they are not constantly cooled by flowing water. Thus, most of the advanced technology used to run a PWR is safety technology designed to keep 300 oC water under 80 atmospheres from flashing into radioactive steam. The other problem that can occur in a meltdown situation is that as the water rapidly boils away, it can oxidize the cladding of the 2,000 oC fuel rods releasing hydrogen gas. The liberated hydrogen gas can then easily explode the reactor core like a highly radioactive hand grenade. Again, that is why PWR reactors need a huge and very expensive reinforced concrete containment structure to hold in large amounts of radioactive materials in the event that the PWR reactor should meltdown. A PWR is kept safe by many expensive and redundant safety systems to keep the water moving. So a PWR is like a commercial jet aircraft. So long as at least one of the jet engines is running, the aircraft is okay. But if all of the jet engines should stop we end up with a tremendous tragedy.

Figure 7 - When a neutron hits a uranium-235 nucleus it can split it into two lighter nuclei like Ba-144 and Kr-89 that fly apart at about 40% of the speed of light and two or three additional neutrons. The nuclei that fly apart are called fission products that are very radioactive with half-lives of less than 30 years and need to be stored for about 300 years. The additional neutrons can then strike other uranium-235 nuclei, causing them to split as well. Some neutrons can also hit uranium-238 nuclei and turn them into radioactive nuclei heavier than 238 with very long half-lives that require them to be stored for about 200,000 years.

PWRs also waste huge amounts of uranium. Currently, we take 1,000 pounds of uranium and fission about 7 pounds of it. That creates about 7 pounds of fission products that are very radioactive with very short half-lives of less than 30 years. That 7 pounds of fission products have to be kept buried for 10 half-lives which comes to about 300 years. But we know how to do that. After all, the United States Constitution is 232 years old! The problem is that the remaining 993 pounds of uranium gets blasted by neutrons and turns into radioactive elements with atomic numbers greater than uranium. That 993 pounds of radioactive waste have to be buried for 200,000 years!

Molten Salt Nuclear Reactors

Figure 8 – Above is a diagram showing the basic components of a molten salt reactor (MSR).

A molten salt reactor (MSR) avoids all of these problems by using a melted uranium fluoride salt for a fuel instead of solid fuel rods. The melted uranium salt is already a liquid at a temperature of 700 oC, or more, that is pumped at a very low pressure through the reactor core. An MSR cannot meltdown because it is already melted! And there is no cooling water that can boil away or generate explosive hydrogen gas when the core gets too hot. An MSR is a thermal reactor that uses graphite in the reactor core to slow down the neutrons that cause fission. Without the presence of graphite, the fission chain reaction stops all by itself. The use of graphite as a moderator also helps an MSR run in a self-stabilizing manner. If the uranium fuel salt gets too hot, it expands and less of the heat-generating fuel salt will be found in the graphite-bearing core so the fuel salt cools down. On the other hand, if the fuel salt gets too cold, it contracts and more of the heat-generating fuel salt will be found in the graphite-bearing core so the fuel salt heats up. This is the same feedback loop mechanism that keeps your house at a comfortable temperature in the winter.

An MSR has a solid plug called the "freeze plug" at the bottom of the core that melts if the uranium fuel salt gets too hot. The melted MSR fuel then flows through the melted plug into several large tanks that have no graphite and that stops any further fissioning. The fuel salt then slowly cools down on its own. The uranium fuel salt could then be reused when things return to normal. There is also a catch basin under the whole reactor core. If the freeze plug hole should get clogged up for some reason and the core ruptures, the uranium fuel salt is caught by the catch basin and drained into the dump tanks. Because the safety mechanisms for an MSR only rely on the laws of physics, like gravity, the melting of solids at certain temperatures and the necessity for the presence of graphite to slow down neutrons, an MSR cannot become a disaster. So unlike a PWR reactor, a molten salt nuclear reactor is more like a car on a lonely country road than a jet aircraft in flight. If the car engine should die, the car slowly coasts to a stop all on its own with no action needed by the driver. A molten salt nuclear reactor is a "walk away" reactor, meaning that you can walk away from it and it will shut itself down all by itself.

An MSR can also be run as a breeder reactor that turns all 1,000 pounds of uranium into fission products with a half-life of less than 30 years. As the fuel circulates, the fission products can be chemically removed from the liquid fuel and then buried for 300 years. So instead of only using 0.7% of the uranium and turning 99.3% of the uranium into waste that needs to be buried for 200,000 years, we use 100% of the uranium and turn it into waste that needs to be buried for only 300 years. The world contains about four times as much thorium as uranium and an MSR can use thorium as a fuel too. An MSR can breed thorium-232 into fissile uranium-233 via the reaction:

Thorium-232 + neutron → Protactinium-233 → Uranium-233

The thorium-232 absorbs a neutron and turns into protactinium-233 that then decays into uranium-233 that can fission just like uranium-235. The half-life of protactinium-233 is 27 days and the generated uranium-233 can be easily chemically removed from the thorium-232 + protactinium-233 salt mixture as it is generated. In fact, all of the current nuclear waste at the world's current nuclear reactors can be used for fuel in an MSR since 99.3% of the waste is uranium or transuranic elements. Such MSRs are known as waste burners. The world now has 250,000 tons of spent nuclear fuel, 1.2 million tons of depleted uranium and huge mounds of thorium waste from rare earth mines. With all of that, we now have several hundred thousand years' worth of uranium and thorium at hand. It only takes a little less than a golf ball's worth of thorium to fuel an American lifestyle for about 100 years and you can find that amount of thorium in a few cubic yards of the Earth's crust.

Figure 9 – A ball of thorium or uranium smaller than a golf ball can fuel an American lifestyle for 100 years. This includes all of the electricity, heating, cooling, driving and flying that an American does in 100 years. We have already mined enough thorium and uranium to run the whole world for thousands of years. There is enough thorium and uranium on the Earth to run the world for hundreds of thousands of years.

Molten salt nuclear reactors can also be run at a temperature of 1,000 oC which is hot enough for many industrial process heat operations. For example, it is hot enough to chemically break water down into hydrogen and oxygen gasses. Compressed hydrogen gas could then be pumped down existing natural gas pipelines for heating and cooking. Compressed hydrogen gas can also be used to run cars and trucks. The compressed hydrogen gas can be used to power vehicles using fuel cells or internal combustion engines burning the hydrogen gas directly into water. Molten salt nuclear reactors could be run at peak capacity all day long to maximize return. During the night, when electrical demand is very low, they could switch to primarily generating large amounts of hydrogen that could be easily stored in our existing natural gas infrastructure.

Figure 10 – Supercritical CO2 Brayton turbines can be about 8,000 times smaller than traditional Rankine steam turbines. They are also much more efficient.

Since molten salt nuclear reactors run at 700 oC, instead of 300 oC, we can use Brayton supercritical carbon dioxide turbines instead of Rankine steam turbines. Supercritical CO2 Brayton turbines are about 8,000 times smaller than Rankine steam turbines because the supercritical CO2 working fluid has nearly the density of water. And because molten salt nuclear reactors do not need an expensive and huge containment structure, they can be made into small factory-built modular units that can be mass-produced. This allows utilities and industrial plants to easily string together any required capacity. They would also be ideal for ocean-going container ships. Supercritical CO2 Brayton turbines can also reach an efficiency of 47% compared to the 33% efficiency of Rankine steam turbines. The discharge temperature of the supercritical CO2 turbines is also high enough to be used to desalinate seawater, and if a body of water is not available for cooling, the discharge heat of a molten salt nuclear reactor can be directly radiated into the air. To watch some supercritical CO2 in action see:

Thermodynamics - Explaining the Critical Point
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmaJVxafesU#t-1

Molten salt nuclear reactors are also continuously refueled and do not need a month of downtime every 18 months to rotate the fuel rods of a PWR and replace 1/3 of the fuel rods with fresh fuel rods. Molten salt nuclear reactors are also not much of a proliferation risk because the molten salt fuel is highly radioactive with short-lived fission products, at a temperature of 700 oC and is not highly enriched with fissile material. That makes it very hard to work with from a bomb-making perspective. It would be easier to just start with natural uranium.

A little nuclear physics helps to understand why. Natural uranium is 99.3% uranium-238 which does not fission but can be turned into plutonium-239 if you hit it with one neutron and plutonium-240 if you hit it with two neutrons. Plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 both fission like uranium-235 and can be used for reactor fuel. Currently, our pressurized water reactors are just burning uranium-235 for energy. So we take 1,000 pounds of natural uranium and only burn the 7 pounds of uranium-235. The remaining 993 pounds of uranium-238 become nuclear waste. That is why people in the 1960s and 1970s wanted some kind of breeder reactor that could burn all 1,000 pounds of uranium and not waste most of the uranium that the Earth had. But should we try for a fast neutron breeder reactor that turned uranium-238 into plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 or should we go with a molten salt nuclear reactor that could continuously turn thorium-232 into uranium-233 and uranium-238 into plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 on the fly for fuel? Unfortunately, for political reasons, the decision was made in 1974 to go with fast breeder reactors that produced plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 from uranium-238.

But the fast neutron breeder reactor had a problem. The fast neutrons make lots of plutonium-239 and very little plutonium-240. Worse yet, if some country just ran a fast neutron breeder reactor for a short period of time and then pulled out the fuel rods, they could then have a source of essentially pure plutonium-239 that could easily be turned into a plutonium atomic bomb. In fact, that is how we make the plutonium-239 for plutonium atomic bombs. Early during the Manhattan Project, it was discovered that plutonium-240 would spontaneously fission all on its own and release 2 - 3 fast neutrons. For a uranium-235 bomb, they discovered that all you had to do was to take two slugs of uranium that were 90% uranium-235 and smash them quickly together with an explosive charge. But for a plutonium bomb, they found that you had to surround a sphere of nearly pure plutonium-239 with a layer of explosive charge that compressed the plutonium-239 into a supercritical mass that would start a fission chain reaction. The fast neutrons from any plutonium-240 impurity created a problem. When you compress the plutonium core of the bomb, the spontaneously generated fast neutrons from the plutonium-240 contaminant will start a premature chain reaction that begins producing lots of heat. The generated heat makes the plutonium core to expand at the exact time you are trying to compress the plutonium core into a supercritical mass that can quickly fission huge amounts of plutonium before the whole thing blows itself apart. Thus, if you have too much plutonium-240 in a plutonium bomb core, the bomb just "fizzles" before it can properly detonate. This created a fear that using huge numbers of fast neutron breeder reactors for electricity would be too dangerous for a world prone to local wars because the reactors could easily be turned into factories for plutonium-239 by pulling out the fuel rods after a short time of service. As a consequence, Congressional funding for the effort was suspended in 1983.

On the other hand, the slow neutrons in molten salt nuclear reactors make a plutonium mixture that is about 75% plutonium-239 and 25% plutonium-240. So the plutonium from molten salt nuclear reactors cannot be used to make plutonium atomic bombs because of the "fizzle" problem. Thus, molten salt nuclear reactors are not much of a proliferation problem because the plutonium that is generated by the slow neutrons is contaminated by 25% plutonium-240 and the uranium-233 that is generated from thorium-232 is also useless for bomb-making because 95% of the uranium in the liquid fuel salt is uranium-238 that does not fission at all. If you really want to make an atomic bomb, the easiest way to do that is to just spin natural uranium in centrifuges as did North Korea and as Iran may now be attempting. Nobody ever made a bomb from reactors meant for generating electricity.

There are several MSR efforts underway around the world, but MSRs need some more support from the government in the form of funding and regulations tuned to the benefits of MSR technology. For more on this, please see:

Making Nuclear Sustainable with CMSR (Compact Molten Salt Reactor) - Troels Schönfeldt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps8oi_HY35E#t-1

Seaborg Technologies Homepage
https://www.seaborg.co/

Thorium and the Future of Nuclear Energy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElulEJruhRQ

Kirk Sorensen is a mechanical engineer who single handedly revived interest in molten salt nuclear reactors about 15 years ago while working for NASA. NASA wanted Kirk to figure out a way to power a base on the Moon. Our Moon does not have coal, oil, natural gas, water for dams or air for wind turbines. The Moon also has a "day" that lasts for two weeks and also a "night" that also lasts for two weeks. So solar energy is really not an option because of the two-week "night". However, the Moon does have uranium. So Kirk paid a visit to our Oak Ridge National Laboratory for advice on a suitable nuclear reactor for the Moon. At Oak Ridge, they suggested he look into the old Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) from the 1960s. Kirk began to dig through the old documents on the MSRE and consulted with some of the retired participants of the MSRE who, by this time, were all in their 70s and 80s. Kirk was shocked to learn that you could turn 100% of thorium-232 into uranium-233 and that uranium-233 was an even better nuclear fuel than uranium-235! A molten salt nuclear reactor could also turn uranium-238 into plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 on the fly and the plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 could also fission and be used as nuclear fuel. So a molten salt nuclear reactor burning uranium and thorium seemed to be just perfect for the Moon because it could burn 100% of the uranium and thorium that the Moon had. Then Kirk realized that molten salt nuclear reactors could also be perfect for solving the Earth's climate change disaster because the Earth has huge amounts of natural uranium and four times that amount of thorium-232 - enough to last for hundreds of thousands of years. Below are some of his excellent videos. You can find more on YouTube.

Thorium can give humanity clean, pollution-free energy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kybenSq0KPo#t-1

Thorium: Kirk Sorensen at TEDxYYC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2vzotsvvkw#t-1

Kirk Sorensen @ MRU on LFTR - Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDA#t-1

Kirk Sorensen's Flibe Energy Homepage
https://flibe-energy.com/

Nuclear goes retro — with a much greener outlook
https://www.knowablemagazine.org/article/technology/2019/nuclear-goes-retro-much-greener-outlook?gclid=CjwKCAiAuK3vBRBOEiwA1IMhuh4Tj2qgXh6Wa700N2oFDOyMbzIvOsU6QrIts1XIxgzx57gGWuBi5xoCGLIQAvD_BwE

If you have a technical background in the hard sciences or engineering be sure to take a look at the presentations of the annual conferences that are held by the Thorium Energy Alliance
http://www.thoriumenergyalliance.com/ThoriumSite/TEAC_Proceedings.html

But for a truly uplifting experience, please see the undergraduate presentation by Thane Symens (Mechanical Engineering), Joel Smith (Mechanical Engineering), Meredy Brichford (Chemical Engineering) & Christina Headley (Chemical Engineering) where they present their senior engineering project on the system design and economics of a thorium molten salt nuclear reactor at:

Calvin College Student Study on Th-MSR @ TEAC7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6RCAgR4Rfo#t-1

It is a powerful example of what software can do in the hands of capable young minds.

How To Make Money Sucking Billions of Tons of Carbon Dioxide Out of the Atmosphere
In Greta Thunberg's moving speech, she pointed out that we now need to suck billions of tons of carbon dioxide out of the Earth's atmosphere to prevent positive feedback loops from kicking in and taking all of this out of our hands. Is that another thing that totally selfish carbon-based Intelligence can achieve without spending a dime? One way to do this would be to set up huge seaweed farms in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Most marine life is confined to coastal waters where it can obtain nutrients from continental runoff. The deep-water oceans are marine deserts by contrast because they are missing the necessary nutrients for carbon-based life. One idea is to use solar energy to pump the nutrient-rich deposits from the abyssal plain of the Pacific Ocean up to the surface to provide the necessary trace elements required by carbon-based life. Then huge seaweed farms would use those trace elements to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. The seaweed farms would have all of the water, sunshine and carbon dioxide they needed to quickly grow. The seaweed farms would then perform the function of huge pastors to raise fish and shellfish for harvesting. The excess seaweed would be cut and sunk to the abyssal plain to sequester large amounts of carbon.

Figure 11 – Large-scale seaweed farms in the middle of the Pacific Ocean could be used to suck billions of tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and turn it into food.

Figure 12 – Excess carbon could then be deposited on the ocean floor for long-term storage.

Additionally, we may need to use large seaweed farms as ocean preservation areas. As we saw in Triona McGrath's TED presentation:

How pollution is changing the ocean's chemistry
https://www.ted.com/talks/triona_mcgrath_how_pollution_is_changing_the_ocean_s_chemistry?utm_source=Science+worth+knowing&utm_campaign=d1897bbfd6-Science+worth+knowing_12-21-17_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_83c20124eb-d1897bbfd6-297552313

The pH of the ocean has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1 since the Industrial Revolution because of absorbed carbon dioxide. That is called ocean acidification. Remember, it was mainly ocean acidification that killed off 95% of marine species during the End-Permian greenhouse gas mass extinction 252 million years ago. If nothing changes, the pH of the ocean will drop to 7.8 by 2100 and it is impossible for marine life to make calcium carbonate shells at that pH because the acidic seawater will dissolve the calcium carbonate shells. All you have to do is dump calcium carbonate shells into water with a pH of 7.8 to watch that happen. Unfortunately, lots of creatures at the very bottom of the oceanic food chain make carbonate shells and will go extinct before the year 2100. This could easily cause the entire oceanic ecosystem of the Earth to collapse leaving behind no fish or shellfish. Fortunately, huge kelp forests can grow 2 feet a day and that takes a lot of carbon to do. They also fix lots of dissolved carbon dioxide via photosynthesis. The large removal of carbon dioxide from the surrounding water raises the pH of the water. So by 2100 we may need to cultivate large portions of the oceans with huge seaweed farms to provide a safe refuge for marine life from the very bottom of the food chain to the very top.

Figure 13 – If we do not stop pumping carbon dioxide into the air, the pH of the oceans will reach 7.8 by 2100 and the oceans will die.

For more on this see:

Can seaweed help curb global warming?
https://www.ted.com/talks/tim_flannery_can_seaweed_help_curb_global_warming#t-1

Could underwater farms help fight climate change?
https://www.ted.com/talks/ayana_johnson_and_megan_davis_could_underwater_farms_help_fight_climate_change#t-1

Reversing Climate Change with Ocean-healing Seaweed Ecosystems
https://www.climatecolab.org/contests/2014/global-plan/c/proposal/1307120

OceanForesters Homepage
http://oceanforesters.org/Home_Page.html

Conclusion
Both of the above efforts would need a little help from the world's governments to get going. But since they both have the potential to make lots of money, my hope would be that private companies would then take over and greatly expand them. It could be very much like the rise of the Internet. Normally, I would be looking to the United States to getting this off the ground. For example, take a look at this 1969 film produced by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the United States Atomic Energy Commission that describes the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) and how Alvin Weinberg's team of 30 nuclear scientists built the very first experimental molten salt nuclear reactor from scratch with only $10 million during the period 1960 - 1965 and then ran it for 20,000 hours from 1965 - 1969 without a hitch. Don't forget we were spending billions of dollars going to the Moon during the 1960s too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyDbq5HRs0o#t-1

But currently the United States is politically paralyzed by political memes and software, and we are incapable of even managing our own affairs. For more on that see Life in Postwar America After Our Stunning Defeat in the Great Cyberwar of 2016. The Republicans keep pretending that climate change is not happening, and the Democrats keep pretending that wind and solar energy alone can fix the problem. The anti-nuclear Left has forged a strange alliance with the pro-fossil fuel Right to eliminate nuclear energy in the United States.

Fortunately, China has huge deposits of thorium and is currently taking up the role that the United States used to play back in the 20th century. The Chinese have spent more than $2 billion on advanced nuclear reactor research and have about 100,000 people working on them. The idea is for China to mass-produce small modular molten salt nuclear reactors on assembly lines like Boeing does for commercial jet aircraft. These compact reactors will then be transported by ships and trucks to an installation site. These compact modular reactors will be cheaper to buy and run than coal, gas, solar or wind plants. These compact reactors will look like small laptops competing with our huge old 1950s-style vacuum tube mainframe PWR reactors. China will first begin to sell these reactors to third-world countries that need lots of cheap electricity to grow. Once the Chinese establish that market and demonstrate the far superior safety of small molten salt nuclear reactors the Chinese will then begin marketing them in Europe and the United States. Six thousand compact 250 MW molten salt nuclear reactors could supply all of the energy that the United States currently uses. There currently are 25,000 commercial jet aircraft on duty around the world. A similar fleet of 250 MW molten salt nuclear reactors could supply the entire world with 100% of the energy it currently requires. With such a state-sponsored effort, China could easily become the next OPEC that controls the world energy supply.

China Invests Big in Clean and Cheap Energy from Thorium
http://www.thoriumenergyworld.com/press-release/china-invests-big-in-clean-and-cheap-energy-from-thorium

Now take a look at this slightly stalinesque video of the current Chinese efforts with molten salt nuclear reactors. Then compare the style of the Chinese video to that of the 1969 United States film:

SINAP T-MSR Promotional Video [ Thorium Molten Salt Reactor ]
https://youtu.be/EdelSZUxZeM

As you can see, China has begun its own state-sponsored "Manhattan Project" to build molten salt nuclear reactors. But the response of the United States has been more like Germany's response during World War II. Recall that the Germans discovered nuclear fission in 1938. Werner Heisenberg, one of the founding fathers of quantum mechanics, was put in charge of the German atomic bomb program. During a fateful meeting with Albert Speer, Hitler's personal architect and the German minister of munitions, Heisenberg asked Speer for 50,000 marks to buy some uranium to get started. Heisenberg figured that a low-ball funding request to get started was the best strategy. However, later, Albert Speer commented that a request for a mere 50,000 marks signaled to him that Werner Heisenberg's work could not be very significant! The idea of preventing China from controlling the world energy supply might be something the Right would be interested in knowing about.

Yes, this might all sound rather stark, but don't forget the age-old motto of the human race, "Don't rush me, I am waiting for the last minute.".

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

WGD - Whole Genome Duplication
How Carbon-Based Life Installs a New Major Release into Production

Writing and maintaining software is very difficult because so much can go wrong. As we saw in The Fundamental Problem of Software this is largely due to the second law of thermodynamics introducing small bugs into software whenever software is changed and also to the nonlinear nature of software that allows small software bugs to frequently produce catastrophic effects. That is why in Facilitated Variation and the Utilization of Reusable Code by Carbon-Based Life we saw that most new computer or biological software is not written from scratch. Instead, most new software is simply a form of reusable code that has been slightly "tweaked" to produce new software functionality. In her Royal Institution presentation:

Copy number variation and the secret of life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJm5jHhJNBI&t=1s

Professor Aoife McLysaght explains how carbon-based life uses this same technique to produce new biological functionality by duplicating genes. The website for Professor McLysaght's lab is located at:

Aoife McLysaght Molecular Evolution Lab
http://www.gen.tcd.ie/molevol/

Once you duplicate a gene, that allows one of the two copies to continue to produce the protein encoded by the gene at normal levels while its copy is then free to slightly mutate into a new form that might be able to produce an enhanced protein or an additional protein with new biological function. It is the golden rule of wing-walking in action - don't let go of something until you have hold of something else. Meaning, that if a single gene mutates in isolation it will most likely produce a protein that no longer works and that will be detrimental, or possibly, even fatal for an organism.

Figure 1 – Above we see a gene with four functions. Once the gene has been duplicated, it is possible for the copy of the gene to evolve by divergence. In the first case, we see Subfunctionalization where some of the gene's code disappears from each chromosome of descendants. In the second case, we see Neofunctionalization where the gene on the copied chromosome is free to mutate by changing some genetic code and dropping other genetic code. In the last case, we see the total loss of the copied gene.

All computer users know the importance of keeping backup copies of files around before messing with them in case a drastic mistake is made. Nowadays, most people keep backup copies on the Cloud with Microsoft or Google.

Professor McLysaght then explains that gene duplication can be classified into two broad categories:

SSD - Small Scale Duplication
WGD - Whole Genome Duplication

In SSD one gene or a small group of genes is accidentally duplicated elsewhere on the same chromosome or a different chromosome when DNA is copied. On the other hand, with WGD the entire genome is accidentally duplicated by essentially doubling the number of chromosomes in a cell. The trouble with SSD is that the duplicated gene or genes will at first most likely produce more of the encoded proteins than is usual. In fact, all things being equal, nearly twice as much of the proteins will be at first produced. This is called the "dosage" problem. You see, doubling the production level of a given protein can cause problems. The processing logic carried out by proteins is quite complex. Some proteins are used to build physical structures, like the kerogen in our hair, fingernails and skin, while other proteins are used to carry out biochemical reactions like the hemoglobin in our blood. Other proteins take on a control function by catalyzing biochemical reactions or even by amplifying or inhibiting the expression of other genes. So changing the relative dosage levels of a protein or a group of proteins by means of SSD can be quite dangerous. However, this problem is averted if the entire genome of an organism is duplicated by means of WGD. With WGD the number of all the genes is doubled and so the relative dosage levels of all the generated proteins should remain the same. Now, with one complete set of genes taking the production load for protein production the other set of genes are free to mutate or even disappear. The significance of WGD gene duplications in the evolutionary history of vertebrates was first proposed by Susumu Ohno in 1970 in his book Evolution by Gene Duplication.

Figure 2 – Whole Genome Duplication (WGD) was first proposed by Susumu Ohno in 1970.

Figure 3 – Here we see the difference between SSD and WGD gene duplication.

Since then, bioinformatics has overwhelmingly confirmed the key role of gene duplication in molecular evolution by comparing the genomes of many species at the genetic level of DNA sequences. In fact, the term "ohnolog" has been coined to describe gene duplicates that have survived since a WGD event.

Another good resource for exploring the impact of WGD events in the evolutionary history of carbon-based life is Dr. Hervé Isambert's lab at:

The Isambert Lab
Reconstruction, Analysis and Evolution of Biological Networks
Institut Curie, Paris
http://kinefold.curie.fr/isambertlab/

Among many other resources, the Isambert Lab has been working on the OHNOLOGS database. The OHNOLOGS database currently allows users to explore the genes retained from WGD (Whole Genome Duplication) events in 27 vertebrate genomes and is available at:

OHNOLOGS - A Repository of Genes Retained from Whole Genome Duplications in the Vertebrate Genomes
http://ohnologs.curie.fr/

Figure 4 – Above is a figure from the Isambert Lab that displays a multitude of WGD events in the evolutionary history of carbon-based life.

Figure 5 – Above is a figure that displays a multitude of WGD events specifically in the evolutionary history of carbon-based plantlife.

Further Confirmation of WGD From the Evolution of Computer Software
Softwarephysics maintains that both carbon-based life and computer software have converged upon many of the same solutions to shared data processing problems as they both learned to deal with the second law of thermodynamics in a nonlinear Universe. This should come as no surprise since both carbon-based life and computer software are simply forms of self-replicating information facing the common problems of survival. For more on that please see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information. For more details on the evolutionary history of software see the SoftwarePaleontology section of SoftwareBiology. So it should come as no surprise that those doing the development and maintenance of computer software should have also discovered the advantages of taking a WGD approach. All IT professionals should be quite familiar with the steps used to move new code into Production, but for those non-IT readers, let me briefly explain the process. Hopefully, you will be able to see many WGD techniques being used in a number of places.

Software Change Management Procedures
Software Change Management arose in the IT departments of major corporations in the 1980s. Prior to the arrival of Change Management processes, corporate IT programmers simply wrote and tested their own software changes in private libraries on the same hardware that ran Production software. When it was time to install the changed software into Production, we simply filled out a ticket to have Data Management move the updated software files from our personal libraries to the Production libraries. Once that was done, the corporate IT programmers could validate the software in the Production libraries with a test batch run before the next scheduled Production run of the batch job. This worked just fine until Production software evolved from batch jobs to online processing by corporate end-users in the early 1980s and especially when external end-users began to interactively use Production software in the 1990s. For example, when I retired in December of 2016, I was in the Middleware Operations group for a major credit card company. All installs were done late at night and during the very early morning hours during our daily Change Window. For an example of a complex software infrastructure supporting a high-volume corporate website please see Software Embryogenesis. Usually, we did about 20 installs each night to cover bug fixes and minor software enhancements. Every change was done under an approved Change Ticket that had an attached install plan that listed all of the items to be installed and the step-by-step timing of each install step. Each install plan also had steps to validate the install and back out the install if problems occurred.

We ran all the Production software in two separate datacenters that were several hundred miles apart. Each datacenter had several hundred Unix servers and ran the exact same Production software. The hardware and software in each datacenter were sized so that it could handle our peak processing load during the middle of the day. Usually, both datacenters would be in Active Mode and taking about half of the total Production processing load. If something horrible happened in one datacenter the Command Center could shift our entire Production processing load to the other datacenter. So during the Change Window for a particular Change Ticket, the Command Center would first move all traffic for the application being changed to the second datacenter. We would then install the new software into the first datacenter and crank it up. Professional validators would then run the new software through a set of validation tests to make sure the software was behaving properly. Then, the Command Center would shut down traffic to the application in the second datacenter to force all traffic to the first datacenter that was running the new software. We would then let the new software on the first datacenter "burn-in" for about 30 minutes of live traffic from real end-users on the Internet. If anything went wrong, the Command Center would move all of the application traffic back to the second datacenter that was still running the old software. We would then back out the new software in the first datacenter and replace it with the old software following the backout plan for the Change Ticket. But if the "burn-in" went well, we would reverse the whole process of traffic flips between the two datacenters to install the new software in the second datacenter. However, if something went wrong the next day with the new software under peak load and an outage resulted, the Command Center would convene a conference call and perhaps 10 people from Applications Development, Middleware Operations, Unix Operations, Network Operations and Database Operations would be paged out and would join the call. The members of the outage call would then troubleshoot the problem in their own areas of expertise to figure out what went wrong. The installation of new code was naturally always our first suspicion. If doing things like restarting the new software did not help, and all other possibilities were eliminated as much as possible, the members of the outage call would come to the decision that the new software was the likely problem, and the new software would be backed out using the Change Ticket backout plan. I hope that you can see how using two separate datacenters that are hundreds of miles apart takes full advantage of the WGD technique used by carbon-based life to keep carbon-based Production up and running at all times for routine maintenance. However, biologists have also discovered that in the evolutionary history of carbon-based life, WGD technology also played a critical role in the rise of new species, so let us take a look at that from an IT perspective.

The Role of WGD Technology in the Implementation of New Species and Major Code Releases
In the above discussion, I explained how the standard Change Management processes were used for the daily changes that Middleware Operations made on a daily basis. However, every few months we conducted a major code release. This was very much like implementing a new species in biology. For a major code release, all normal daily Change Tickets were suspended so that full attention could be focused on the major code release. For a major code release, Applications Development appointed a Release Coordinator for the software release and perhaps 30 - 60 Change Tickets would be generated for the major code release. Each Change Ticket in the major code release had its own detailed installation plan, but the Release Coordinator would also provide a detailed installation and backout plan for all of the Change Tickets associated with the major code release. From an IT perspective, a major code release is like creating a new species. It is like moving from Windows 8.0 to Windows 10.0. The problem with a large major code release is that it cannot all be done in a single standard Change Window during the night and early morning hours. Instead, an extended Change Window must be approved by IT Management that extends into the next day and might complete around 3:00 or 4:00 PM the next day. The basic idea was to totally complete the new major code release in the first datacenter during the early morning hours in the standard Change Window. Once that was done, live traffic was slowly transferred to the first datacenter. For example, initially, only 10% of the live traffic was transferred to the first datacenter running the new major code release. After about an hour of "burning in" the new code, the traffic level in the first datacenter was raised to 30% for about 30 minutes. If all went well, the load level on the first datacenter was raised to 80% for 30 minutes. Finally, 100% of the traffic was transferred to the first datacenter for about 30 minutes for a final "burn-in". After that, the whole install team shifted work to the second datacenter. The most significant danger was that even though the first datacenter had run 100% of the traffic for about 30 minutes, it did so during an early part of the day when the total processing load was rather low. The worst thing that could happen would be for the first datacenter that was running 100% of the Production load on the new major code release would get into trouble when the peak load hit around 10:00 AM. Should that happen, we would be in the horrible situation where the second datacenter was unusable because it was halfway through the major code release and the first datacenter was experiencing problems due to the major code release. Such a situation could bring an entire corporate website down into a "hard down" condition. A "hard down" condition can cost thousands to millions of dollars per second depending on the business being conducted by the software. Such a state of affairs needs to be avoided at all costs and to do that, IT relies heavily on the WGD technique.

First, there are three separate software environments running the current software genome:

Production
Production is the sacred software environment in which no changes are allowed to be made without a Production Change Ticket that has been approved by all layers of IT Management. Production software is sacred because Production software runs the business and is the software that all internal and external users interact with. If Production software fails, it can cost a business or governmental agency thousands or millions of dollars each second! That is why all IT professionals are deathly afraid of messing up Production and, therefore, follow all of the necessary Change Management processes not to do so. I personally know of very talented IT professionals who were summarily fired for making unauthorized changes to Production.

Production Assurance
Production Assurance is the environment that is set up by IT Management to mimic the Production environment as best as possible. It usually is a scaled-down version of Production that does not take Production load. Production Assurance is like a wind tunnel that allows new software to experience the trials and tribulations of Production but using a scaled-down model of Production instead of the "real thing". Production Assurance is where all of the heavy-duty software testing takes place by professional Production Assurance testers. The IT professionals in Applications Development who write the new code do not do testing in Production Assurance. Once software has been exhaustively tested in Production Assurance, it is ready to move to Production with a scheduled Change Ticket in a scheduled Change Window.

Development
The Development environment is where IT professionals in Application Development program new code and perform unit and integration testing on the new code. Again, most new code is reusable code that has been "tweaked". Once all unit and integration testing have been completed on some new code, a Production Assurance Change Ticket is opened for Middleware Operations, Unix Operations, Database Operations and Network Operations to move the new software to Production Assurance for final system-wide testing.

Conclusion
As you can see, IT has also discovered the benefits of the WGD techniques developed by carbon-based life to introduce new genes and new species into the biosphere. Not only do corporate IT departments generally run Production software on two separate Production environments, but corporate IT departments also use multiple WGD environments like Production, Production Assurance and Development to produce new software functionality, and most importantly, move new major releases into Production as a new species of software. Thus, as I suggested in How to Study the Origin of Life on the Earth and Elsewhere in the Universe Right Here at Home, I highly recommend that all researchers investigating the roles that WGD and SSD gene duplication played in the evolutionary history of carbon-based life spend a few months doing some fieldwork in the IT department of a major corporation or governmental agency.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston