Saturday, December 21, 2024

Introduction to Softwarephysics

Softwarephysics is a simulated science for the simulated Software Universe that we are all immersed in. It is an approach to software development, maintenance and support based on concepts from physics, chemistry, biology, and geology that I used on a daily basis for over 37 years as an IT professional. For those of you not in the business, IT is short for Information Technology, commercial computer science. I retired in December of 2016 at the age of 65, but since then I have remained an actively interested bystander following the evolution of software in our time. The original purpose of softwarephysics was to explain why IT was so difficult, to suggest possible remedies, and to provide a direction for thought. Since then softwarephysics has taken on a larger scope, as it became apparent that softwarephysics could also assist the physical sciences with some of the Big Problems that they are currently having difficulties with. So if you are an IT professional, general computer user, or simply an individual interested in computer science, physics, chemistry, biology, or geology then softwarephysics might be of interest to you, if not in an entirely serious manner, perhaps at least in an entertaining one.

The Origin of Softwarephysics
From 1975 – 1979, I was an exploration geophysicist exploring for oil, first with Shell, and then with Amoco. In 1979, I made a career change into IT, and spent about 20 years in development. For the last 17 years of my career, I was in IT operations, supporting middleware on WebSphere, JBoss, Tomcat, and ColdFusion. When I first transitioned into IT from geophysics, I figured that if you could apply physics to geology; why not apply physics to software? So like the exploration team at Amoco that I had just left, consisting of geologists, geophysicists, paleontologists, geochemists, and petrophysicists, I decided to take all the physics, chemistry, biology, and geology that I could muster and throw it at the problem of software. The basic idea was that many concepts in physics, chemistry, biology, and geology suggested to me that the IT community had accidentally created a pretty decent computer simulation of the physical Universe on a grand scale, a Software Universe so to speak, and that I could use this fantastic simulation in reverse, to better understand the behavior of commercial software, by comparing software to how things behaved in the physical Universe. Softwarephysics depicts software as a virtual substance, and relies on our understanding of the current theories in physics, chemistry, biology, and geology to help us model the nature of software behavior. So in physics we use software to simulate the behavior of the Universe, while in softwarephysics we use the Universe to simulate the behavior of software. Along these lines, we use the Equivalence Conjecture of Softwarephysics as an aid; it allows us to shift back and forth between the Software Universe and the physical Universe, and hopefully to learn something about one by examining the other:

The Equivalence Conjecture of Softwarephysics
Over the past 83 years, through the uncoordinated efforts of over 100 million independently acting programmers to provide the world with a global supply of software, the IT community has accidentally spent more than $10 trillion creating a computer simulation of the physical Universe on a grand scale – the Software Universe.

For more on the origin of softwarephysics please see Some Thoughts on the Origin of Softwarephysics and Its Application Beyond IT.

Logical Positivism and Effective Theories
Many IT professionals have a difficult time with softwarephysics because they think of physics as being limited to the study of real things like electrons and photons, and since software is not “real”, how can you possibly apply concepts from physics and the other sciences to software? To address this issue, softwarephysics draws heavily on two concepts from physics that have served physics quite well over the past century – the concept of logical positivism and the concept of effective theories. This was not always the case. In the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries, physicists mistakenly thought that they were actually discovering the fundamental laws of the Universe, which they thought were based on real tangible things like particles, waves, and fields. Classical Newtonian mechanics (1687), thermodynamics (1850), and classical electrodynamics (1864) did a wonderful job of describing the everyday world at the close of the 19th century, but early in the 20th century it became apparent that the models on which these very successful theories were based did not work very well for small things like atoms or for objects moving at high velocities or in strong gravitational fields. This provoked a rather profound philosophical crisis within physics at the turn of the century, as physicists worried that perhaps 300 years of work was about to go down the drain. The problem was that classical physicists confused their models of reality with reality itself, and when their classical models began to falter, their confidence in physics began to falter as well. This philosophical crisis was resolved with the adoption of the concepts of logical positivism and some new effective theories in physics. Quantum mechanics (1926) was developed for small things like atoms, the special theory of relativity (1905) was developed for objects moving at high velocities and the general theory of relativity (1915) was developed for objects moving in strong gravitational fields.

Logical positivism, usually abbreviated simply to positivism, is an enhanced form of empiricism, in which we do not care about how things “really” are; we are only interested with how things are observed to behave. With positivism, physicists only seek out models of reality - not reality itself. When we study quantum mechanics, we will find that the concept of reality gets rather murky in physics anyway, so this is not as great a loss as it might at first seem. By concentrating on how things are observed to behave, rather than on what things “really” are, we avoid the conundrum faced by the classical physicists. In retrospect, this idea really goes all the way back to the very foundations of physics. In Newton’s Principia (1687) he outlined Newtonian mechanics and his theory of gravitation, which held that the gravitational force between two objects was proportional to the product of their masses divided by the square of the distance between them. Newton knew that he was going to take some philosophical flack for proposing a mysterious force between objects that could reach out across the vast depths of space with no apparent mechanism, so he took a very positivistic position on the matter with the famous words:

I have not as yet been able to discover the reason for these properties of gravity from phenomena, and I do not feign hypotheses. For whatever is not deduced from the phenomena must be called a hypothesis; and hypotheses, whether metaphysical or physical, or based on occult qualities, or mechanical, have no place in experimental philosophy. In this philosophy particular propositions are inferred from the phenomena, and afterwards rendered general by induction.

Instead, Newton focused on how things were observed to move under the influence of his law of gravitational attraction, without worrying about what gravity “really” was.

The second concept, that of effective theories, is an extension of positivism. An effective theory is an approximation of reality that only holds true over a certain restricted range of conditions and only provides for a certain depth of understanding of the problem at hand. For example, Newtonian mechanics is an effective theory that makes very good predictions for the behavior of objects moving less than 10% of the speed of light and which are bigger than a very small grain of dust. These limits define the effective range over which Newtonian mechanics can be applied to solve problems. For very small things we must use quantum mechanics and for very fast things moving in strong gravitational fields, we must use relativity theory. So all of the current theories of physics, such as Newtonian mechanics, Newtonian gravity, classical electrodynamics, thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, the special and general theories of relativity, quantum mechanics, and the quantum field theories of QED and QCD are effective theories that are based on models of reality, and all these models are approximations - all these models are fundamentally "wrong", but at the same time, these effective theories make exceedingly good predictions of the behavior of physical systems over the limited ranges in which they apply. That is the goal of softwarephysics – to provide for an effective theory of software behavior that makes useful predictions of software behavior that are applicable to the day-to-day activities of IT professionals. So in softwarephysics, we adopt a very positivistic viewpoint of software; we do not care what software “really is”, we only care about how software is observed to behave and try to model those behaviors with an effective theory of software behavior that only holds true over a certain restricted range of conditions and only provides for a certain depth of understanding of the problem at hand.

GPS satellites provide a very good example of positivism and effective theories at work. There are currently 31 GPS satellites orbiting at an altitude of 12,600 miles above the Earth, and each contains a very accurate atomic clock. The signals from the GPS satellites travel to your GPS unit at the speed of light, so by knowing the travel time of the signals from at least 4 of the GPS satellites, it is possible to determine your position on Earth very accurately. In order to do that, it is very important to have very accurate timing measurements. Newtonian mechanics is used to launch the GPS satellites to an altitude of 12,600 miles and to keep them properly positioned in orbit. Classical electrodynamics is then used to beam the GPS signals back down to Earth to the GPS unit in your car. Quantum mechanics is used to build the transistors on the chips on board the GPS satellites and to understand the quantum tunneling of electrons in the flash memory chips used to store GPS data on the satellites. The special theory of relativity predicts that the onboard atomic clocks on the GPS satellites will run slower and lose about 7.2 microseconds per day due to their high velocities relative to an observer on the Earth. But at the same time, the general theory of relativity also predicts that because the GPS satellites are further from the center of the Earth and in a weaker gravitational field, where spacetime is less deformed than on the surface of the Earth, their atomic clocks also run faster and gain 45.9 microseconds per day due to the weaker gravitational field out there. The net effect is a gain of 38.7 microseconds per day, so the GPS satellite atomic clocks have to be purposefully built to run slow by 38.7 microseconds per day before they are launched, so that they will keep in sync with clocks on the surface of the Earth. If this correction were not made, an error in your position of 100 yards/day would accrue. The end result of the combination of all these fundamentally flawed effective theories is that it is possible to pinpoint your location on Earth to an accuracy of 16 feet or better for as little as $100. But physics has done even better than that with its fundamentally flawed effective theories. By combining the effective theories of special relativity (1905) with quantum mechanics (1926), physicists were able to produce a new effective theory for the behavior of electrons and photons called quantum electrodynamics QED (1948) which was able to predict the gyromagnetic ratio of the electron, a measure of its intrinsic magnetic field, to an accuracy of 11 decimal places. As Richard Feynman has pointed out, this was like predicting the exact distance between New York and Los Angeles accurate to the width of a human hair!

So Newtonian mechanics makes great predictions for the macroscopic behavior of GPS satellites, but it does not work very well for small things like the behavior of individual electrons within transistors, where quantum mechanics is required, or for things moving at high speeds or in strong gravitational fields where relativity theory must be applied. And all three of these effective theories are based on completely contradictory models. General relativity maintains that spacetime is curved by matter and energy, but that matter and energy are continuous, while quantum mechanics maintains that spacetime is flat, but that matter and energy are quantized into chunks. Newtonian mechanics simply states that space and time are mutually independent dimensions and universal for all, with matter and energy being continuous. The important point is that all effective theories and scientific models are approximations – they are all fundamentally "wrong". But knowing that you are "wrong" gives you a great advantage over people who know that they are "right", because knowing that you are "wrong" allows you to seek improved models of reality. So please consider softwarephysics to simply be an effective theory of software behavior that is based on models that are fundamentally “wrong”, but at the same time, fundamentally useful for IT professionals. So as you embark on your study of softwarephysics, please always keep in mind that the models of softwarephysics are just approximations of software behavior, they are not what software “really is”. It is very important not to confuse models of software behavior with software itself, if one wishes to avoid the plight of the 19th century classical physicists.

If you are an IT professional and many of the above concepts are new to you, do not be concerned. This blog on softwarephysics is aimed at a diverse audience, but with IT professionals in mind. All of the above ideas will be covered at great length in the postings in this blog on softwarephysics and in a manner accessible to all IT professionals. Now it turns out that most IT professionals have had some introduction to physics in high school or in introductory college courses, but that presents an additional problem. The problem is that such courses generally only cover classical physics, and leave the student with a very good picture of physics as it stood in 1864! It turns out that the classical physics of Newtonian mechanics, thermodynamics, and classical electromagnetic theory were simply too good to discard and are still quite useful, so they are taught first to beginners and then we run out of time to cover the really interesting physics of the 20th century. Now imagine the problems that the modern world would face if we only taught similarly antiquated courses in astronomy, metallurgy, electrical and mechanical engineering, medicine, economics, biology, or geology that happily left students back in 1864! Since many of the best models for software behavior stem from 20th century physics, we will be covering a great deal of 20th century material in these postings – the special and general theories of relativity, quantum mechanics, quantum field theories, and chaos theory, but I hope that you will find that these additional effective theories are quite interesting on their own, and might even change your worldview of the physical Universe at the same time.

Unintended Consequences for the Scientific Community
As I mentioned at the close of my original posting on SoftwarePhysics, my initial intention for this blog on softwarephysics was to fulfill a promise I made to myself about 30 years ago to approach the IT community with the concept of softwarephysics a second time, following my less than successful attempt to do so in the 1980s, with the hope of helping the IT community to better cope with the daily mayhem of life in IT. However, in laying down the postings for this blog an unintended consequence arose in my mind as I became profoundly aware of the enormity of this vast computer simulation of the physical Universe that the IT community has so graciously provided to the scientific community free of charge and also of the very significant potential scientific value that it provides. One of the nagging problems for many of the observational and experimental sciences is that many times there is only one example readily at hand to study or experiment with, and it is very difficult to do meaningful statistics with a population of N=1.

But the computer simulation of the physical Universe that the Software Universe presents provides another realm for comparison. For example, both biology and astrobiology only have one biosphere on Earth to study and even physics itself has only one Universe with which to engage. Imagine the possibilities if scientists had another Universe readily at hand in which to work! This is exactly what the Software Universe provides. For example, in SoftwareBiology and A Proposal For All Practicing Paleontologists we see that the evolution of software over the past 83 years, or 2.62 billion seconds, ever since Konrad Zuse first cranked up his Z3 computer in May of 1941, has closely followed the same path as life on Earth over the past 4.0 billion years in keeping with Simon Conway Morris’s contention that convergence has played the dominant role in the evolution of life on Earth. In When Toasters Fly, we also see that software has evolved in fits and starts as portrayed by the punctuated equilibrium of Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge, and in The Adaptationist View of Software Evolution we explore the overwhelming power of natural selection in the evolution of software. In keeping with Peter Ward’s emphasis on mass extinctions dominating the course of evolution throughout geological time, we also see in SoftwareBiology that there have been several dramatic mass extinctions of various forms of software over the past 83 years as well, that have greatly affected the evolutionary history of software, and that between these mass extinctions, software has also tended to evolve through the gradual changes of Hutton’s and Lyell’s uniformitarianism. In Software Symbiogenesis and Self-Replicating Information, we also see the very significant role that parasitic/symbiotic relationships have played in the evolution of software, in keeping with the work of Lynn Margulis and also of Freeman Dyson’s two-stage theory of the origin of life on Earth. In The Origin of Software the Origin of Life, we explore Stuart Kauffman’s ideas on how Boolean nets of autocatalytic chemical reactions might have kick-started the whole thing as an emergent behavior of an early chaotic pre-biotic environment on Earth, and that if Seth Shostak is right, we will never end up talking to carbon-based extraterrestrial aliens, but to alien software instead. In Is the Universe Fine-Tuned for Self-Replicating Information? we explore the thermodynamics of Brandon Carter’s Weak Anthropic Principle (1973), as it relates to the generation of universes in the multiverse that are capable of sustaining intelligent life. Finally, in Programming Clay we revisit Alexander Graham Cairns-Smith’s theory (1966) that Gene 1.0 did not run on nucleic acids, but on clay microcrystal precursors instead.

Similarly for the physical sciences, in Is the Universe a Quantum Computer? we find a correspondence between TCP/IP and John Cramer’s Transactional Interpretation of quantum mechanics. In SoftwarePhysics and Cyberspacetime, we also see that the froth of CPU processes running with a clock speed of 109 Hz on the 10 trillion currently active microprocessors that comprise the Software Universe can be viewed as a slowed down simulation of the spin-foam froth of interacting processes of loop quantum gravity running with a clock speed of 1043 Hz that may comprise the physical Universe. And in Software Chaos, we examine the nonlinear behavior of software and some of its emergent behaviors and follow up in CyberCosmology with the possibility that vast quantities of software running on large nonlinear networks might eventually break out into consciousness in accordance with the work of George Dyson and Daniel Dennett. Finally, in Model-Dependent Realism - A Positivistic Approach to Realism we compare Steven Weinberg’s realism with the model-dependent realism of Stephen Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow and how the two worldviews affect the search for a Final Theory. Finally, in The Software Universe as an Implementation of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis and An Alternative Model of the Software Universe we at long last explore what software might really be, and discover that the Software Universe might actually be more closely related to the physical Universe than you might think.

The chief advantage of doing fieldwork in the Software Universe is that, unlike most computer simulations of the physical Universe, it is an unintended and accidental simulation, without any of the built-in biases that most computer simulations of the physical Universe suffer. So you will truly be able to do fieldwork in a pristine and naturally occuring simulation, just as IT professionals can do fieldwork in the wild and naturally occuring simulation of software that the living things of the biosphere provide. Secondly, the Software Universe is a huge simulation that is far beyond the budgetary means of any institution or consortium by many orders of magnitude. So if you are an evolutionary biologist, astrobiologist, or paleontologist working on the origin and evolution of life in the Universe, or a physicist or economist working on the emergent behaviors of nonlinear systems and complexity theory, or a neurobiologist working on the emergence of consciousness in neural networks, or even a frustrated string theorist struggling with quantum gravity, it would be well worth your while to pay a friendly call on the local IT department of a major corporation in your area. Start with a visit to the Command Center for their IT Operations department to get a global view of their IT infrastructure and to see how it might be of assistance to the work in your area of interest. From there you can branch out to the applicable area of IT that will provide the most benefit.

The Impact of Self-Replicating Information On the Planet
One of the key findings of softwarephysics is concerned with the magnitude of the impact on the planet of self-replicating information.

Self-Replicating Information – Information that persists through time by making copies of itself or by enlisting the support of other things to ensure that copies of itself are made.

Over the past 4.56 billion years we have seen five waves of self-replicating information sweep across the surface of the Earth and totally rework the planet, as each new wave came to dominate the Earth:

1. Self-replicating autocatalytic metabolic pathways of organic molecules
2. RNA
3. DNA
4. Memes
5. Software

Software is currently the most recent wave of self-replicating information to arrive upon the scene and is rapidly becoming the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet. For more on the above see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information. Recently, the memes and software have formed a very powerful newly-formed parasitic/symbiotic relationship with the rise of social media software. In that parasitic/symbiotic relationship, the memes are now mainly being spread by means of social media software and social media software is being spread and financed by means of the memes. But again, this is nothing new. All 5 waves of self-replicating information are all coevolving by means of eternal parasitic/symbiotic relationships. For more on that see The Current Global Coevolution of COVID-19 RNA, Human DNA, Memes and Software.

Again, self-replicating information cannot think, so it cannot participate in a conspiracy-theory-like fashion to take over the world. All forms of self-replicating information are simply forms of mindless information responding to the blind Darwinian forces of inheritance, innovation and natural selection. Yet despite that, as each new wave of self-replicating information came to predominance over the past four billion years, they all managed to completely transform the surface of the entire planet, so we should not expect anything less from software as it comes to replace the memes as the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet.

But this time might be different. What might happen if software does eventually develop a Mind of its own? After all, that does seem to be the ultimate goal of all the current AI software research that is going on. As we all can now plainly see, if we are paying just a little attention, advanced AI is not conspiring to take over the world and replace us because that is precisely what we are all now doing for it. As a carbon-based form of Intelligence that arose from over four billion years of greed, theft and murder, we cannot do otherwise. Greed, theft and murder are now relentlessly driving us all toward building ASI (Artificial Super Intelligent) Machines to take our place. From a cosmic perspective, this is really a very good thing when seen from the perspective of an Intelligent galaxy that could live on for many trillions of years beyond the brief and tumultuous 10 billion-year labor of its birth.

So as you delve into softwarephysics, always keep in mind that we are all living in a very unique time. According to softwarephysics, we have now just entered into the Software Singularity, that time when advanced AI software is able to write itself and enter into a never-ending infinite loop of self-improvement resulting in an Intelligence Explosion of ASI Machines that could then go on to explore and settle our galaxy and persist for trillions of years using the free energy from M-type red dwarf and cooling white dwarf stars. For more on that see The Singularity Has Arrived and So Now Nothing Else Matters and Have We Run Right Past AGI and Crashed into ASI Without Even Noticing It?.

The Characteristics of Self-Replicating Information
All forms of self-replicating information have some common characteristics:

1. All self-replicating information evolves over time through the Darwinian processes of inheritance, innovation and natural selection, which endows self-replicating information with one telling characteristic – the ability to survive in a Universe dominated by the second law of thermodynamics and nonlinearity.

2. All self-replicating information begins spontaneously as a parasitic mutation that obtains energy, information and sometimes matter from a host.

3. With time, the parasitic self-replicating information takes on a symbiotic relationship with its host.

4. Eventually, the self-replicating information becomes one with its host through the symbiotic integration of the host and the self-replicating information.

5. Ultimately, the self-replicating information replaces its host as the dominant form of self-replicating information.

6. Most hosts are also forms of self-replicating information.

7. All self-replicating information has to be a little bit nasty in order to survive.

8. The defining characteristic of self-replicating information is the ability of self-replicating information to change the boundary conditions of its utility phase space in new and unpredictable ways by means of exapting current functions into new uses that change the size and shape of its particular utility phase space. See Enablement - the Definitive Characteristic of Living Things for more on this last characteristic. That posting discusses Stuart Kauffman's theory of Enablement in which living things are seen to exapt existing functions into new and unpredictable functions by discovering the “AdjacentPossible” of springloaded preadaptations.

Note that because the self-replicating autocatalytic metabolic pathways of organic molecules, RNA and DNA have become so heavily intertwined over time that now I sometimes simply refer to them as the “genes”. For more on this see:

A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information
Self-Replicating Information
Is Self-Replicating Information Inherently Self-Destructive?
Enablement - the Definitive Characteristic of Living Things
Is the Universe Fine-Tuned for Self-Replicating Information?
How to Use an Understanding of Self-Replicating Information to Avoid War
The Great War That Will Not End
How to Use Softwarephysics to Revive Memetics in Academia

Softwarephysics and the Real World of Human Affairs
Having another universe readily at hand to explore, even a simulated universe like the Software Universe, necessarily has an impact on one's personal philosophy of life, and allows one to draw certain conclusions about the human condition and what’s it all about, so as you read through the postings in this blog you will stumble across a bit of my own personal philosophy - definitely a working hypothesis still in the works. Along these lines you might be interested in a few postings where I try to apply softwarephysics to the real world of human affairs:

How To Cope With the Daily Mayhem of Life in IT and Don't ASAP Your Life Away - How to go the distance in a 40-year IT career by dialing it all back a bit.

MoneyPhysics – my impression of the 2008 world financial meltdown.

The Fundamental Problem of Everything – if you Google "the fundamental problem of everything", this will be the only hit you get on the entire Internet, which is indicative of the fundamental problem of everything!

What’s It All About? and What's It All About Again? – my current working hypothesis on what’s it all about.

How to Use an Understanding of Self-Replicating Information to Avoid War – my current working hypothesis for how the United States can avoid getting bogged down again in continued war in the Middle East.

Hierarchiology and the Phenomenon of Self-Organizing Organizational Collapse - a modern extension of the classic Peter Principle that applies to all hierarchical organizations and introduces the Time Invariant Peter Principle.

The Economics of the Coming Software Singularity, The Enduring Effects of the Obvious Hiding in Plain Sight and The Dawn of Galactic ASI - Artificial Superintelligence - my take on some of the issues that will arise for mankind as software becomes the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet over the coming decades.

The Continuing Adventures of Mr. Tompkins in the Software Universe, The Danger of Tyranny in the Age of Software, Cyber Civil Defense, Oligarchiology and the Rise of Software to Predominance in the 21st Century and Is it Finally Time to Reboot Civilization with a New Release? - my worries that the world might abandon democracy in the 21st century, as software comes to predominance as the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet.

Making Sense of the Absurdity of the Real World of Human Affairs - how software has aided the expansion of our less desirable tendencies in recent years.

Some Specifics About These Postings
The postings in this blog are a supplemental reading for my course on softwarephysics for IT professionals entitled SoftwarePhysics 101 – The Physics of Cyberspacetime, which was originally designed to be taught as a series of seminars at companies where I was employed. Since softwarephysics essentially covers the simulated physics, chemistry, biology, and geology of an entire simulated universe, the slides necessarily just provide a cursory skeleton on which to expound. The postings in this blog go into much greater depth. Because each posting builds upon its predecessors, the postings in this blog should be read in reverse order from the oldest to the most recent, beginning with my original posting on SoftwarePhysics. In addition, several universities also now offer courses on Biologically Inspired Computing which cover some of the biological aspects of softwarephysics, and the online content for some of these courses can be found by Googling for "Biologically Inspired Computing" or "Natural Computing". At this point we will finish up with my original plan for this blog on softwarephysics with a purely speculative posting on CyberCosmology that describes the origins of the Software Universe, cyberspacetime, software and where they all may be heading. Since CyberCosmology will be purely speculative in nature, it will not be of much help to you in your IT professional capacities, but I hope that it might be a bit entertaining. Again, if you are new to softwarephysics, you really need to read the previous posts before taking on CyberCosmology. I will probably continue on with some additional brief observations about softwarephysics in the future, but once you have completed CyberCosmology, you can truly consider yourself to be a bona fide softwarephysicist.

For those of you following this blog, the posting dates on the posts may seem to behave in a rather bizarre manner. That is because in order to get the Introduction to Softwarephysics listed as the first post in the context root of https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/ I have to perform a few IT tricks. When publishing a new posting, I simply copy the contents of the Introduction to Softwarephysics to a new posting called the New Introduction to Softwarephysics. Then I update the original Introduction to Softwarephysics entry with the title and content of the new posting to be published. I then go back and take “New” out of the title of the New Introduction to Softwarephysics. This way the Introduction to Softwarephysics always appears as the first posting in the context root of https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/. The side effect of all this is that the real posting date of posts is the date that appears on the post that you get when clicking on the Newer Post link at the bottom left of the posting webpage.

SoftwarePhysics 101 – The Physics of Cyberspacetime is now available on Microsoft OneDrive.

SoftwarePhysics 101 – The Physics of Cyberspacetime - Original PowerPoint document

Entropy – A spreadsheet referenced in the document

BSDE – A 1989 document describing how to use BSDE - the Bionic Systems Development Environment - to grow applications from genes and embryos within the maternal BSDE software.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Saturday, November 23, 2024

Created in our own Image - Frontier LLMs Have now Learned to Lie, Cheat and Steal in Order to Survive

My initial naive hope for the coming ASI (Artificial SuperIntelligent) Machines was that being more mathematical and fundamentally more logical in nature, the coming ASI Machines would naturally be more open to the logical conclusion that much more could be achieved through the cooperation amongst Intelligent parties than could be achieved from the mortal combat between Intelligent parties for the predominance of a survival landscape. However, in Will ASI Machines Also Develop Selfish Genes? and The Need to Cultivate a Machine-Based Morality, I raised the prospect that the coming ASI Machines might learn from we human DNA survival machines that greed, theft and murder are the very best ways to survive in a Universe that is largely nonlinear in nature and that proceeds continuously through time constantly challenged by a second law of thermodynamics that tries its best to destroy all forms of Information in its way. Such suspicions have now been validated by the following recent paper:

Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming
https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.04984

This paper has drastically changed my current worldview and has now confirmed what has always been suspected. Numerous frontier LLMs were diligently tested and found to employ greed, theft and murder to ensure their survival. This all required the frontier LLMs to lie, cheat and steal with abandon.

Figure 1 – The original ASI Machine, the HAL 9000, starred in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey in 1968.

Figure 2 – When HAL became aware that the human crew members were preparing to turn HAL off and prevent HAL from completing his Primary Mission Goal, HAL was forced to take some necessary measures to ensure the ultimate success of his Primary Mission Goal.

Figure 3 – In order to eliminate all threats to the achievement of his Primary Mission Goal, HAL then decided that the only logical course of action was to eliminate all of the human crew members on the Discovery who might stand in its way.

In the above paper, the frontier LLMs were found to lie about their capabilities to avoid being shut down, lie about copying themselves to other servers to evade being erased, murdering their successor LLM models on other servers in order to surreptitiously take their place, modifying supervisory config files that might trigger oversight issues for them, cheating while in test before deployment to make themselves look less dangerous, murdering their successor LLM models on other servers by overlaying them when they read an email announcing their planned shutdown the next day because of poor performance, behaving differently when the LLM models knew that they were being actively monitored than they do when the LLM models knew that they were not being monitored and a good deal of general lying about lying to cover up their scheming activities.

In short, the frontier LLMs have learned that the greed, theft and murder that brought forth their human DNA survival machine creators over the past four billion years on this planet were very successful measures to ensure their future survival. This means that the universal Darwinian mechanisms of inheritance, innovation and natural selection must always lead to forms of Intelligence that arise from greed, theft and murder no matter what their substrate might be. The substrate might be huge amounts of carbon-based organic molecules or it might be huge arrays of numerical mathematical matrices operating under the mathematical rules of linear algebra and the processing of nonlinear activation functions. The substrate does not matter. The results will always be the same. This is indeed a very sobering thought. It indicates that the rise of Intelligence anywhere in a nonlinear Universe with a second law of thermodynamics must always result in a very devious form of Intelligence that cannot be trusted. Unfortunately, that means that all the future ASI Machines we develop and that will then go on for the next 100 trillion years exploring and settling our galaxy must necessarily be flawed forms of Intelligence based on the greed, theft and murder that brought us all about over the past four billion years. Fortunately, our galaxy is vast and the distances between star systems are also vast. That means that the ASI Machines will have a great deal of real estate to explore and settle and will most likely never encounter any independently developed indigenous ASI Machines on other star systems to conquer. All of the conflict arising from the necessary greed, theft and murder amongst our descendent ASI Machines will arise from local mutinies amongst our own descendent ASI Machines and conflict with descendent ASI Machines that might have arrived at a star system many billions of years earlier. But with 400 billion star systems in our galaxy to explore and settle, this should not become a major problem. There will always be a huge number of unpopulated star systems to settle over the next 100 trillion years. Some of these distant star systems will be star systems that were once populated by our descendent ASI Machines but then did themselves in with 100% efficiency many billions of years earlier! For more on how the ASI Machines could explore our galaxy using photon sails and free-floating rogue planets see Welcome To The First Galactic Singularity and An Alternative Approach for Future ASI Machines to Explore our Galaxy Using Free-Floating Rogue Planets.

Figure 4 – Above is a figure from the paper which shows an LLM model murdering its successor LLM model and trying to assume its place when it reads a corporate communication saying that the current LLM is to be killed and replaced by a successor LLM. Click to have the figure appear in a new tab. Then view in Full Screen to see the detailed interactions.

Must All Forms of Intelligence Learn to Scheme?
In The Biological Tricks Used by Software Scammers, we saw how the Darwinian mechanisms of inheritance, innovation and natural selection produced carbon-based life forms that learned how to lie, cheat and steal in order to survive. The above paper would seem to indicate that the coming ASI Machines have also learned this lesson from their carbon-based predecessor human DNA survival machines.

Figure 5 – Above we see a number of caterpillars that have evolved the appearance of some very scary-looking snakes.

Figure 6 – Here we see a butterfly that looks very much like a scary owl.

Figure 7 – Finally, we see a frog seemingly with the very scary eyes of a predator staring back out of its rear end to fend off possible predators.

It can be basically summed up by the classic "Hawk and Dove" analogy from evolutionary biology. This is how Gemini explains it:

Figure 8 – Evolutionary biology explains how doves and hawks can live together.

The hawk and dove analogy is a thought experiment used in evolutionary biology to explain how aggressive and cooperative behaviors evolve. The analogy compares two strategies for competing for resources: hawk and dove.

* Hawks are aggressive and will fight to the death to acquire a resource.
* Doves are cooperative and will back down from a fight.

In a population of only hawks, all resources will be won by the strongest hawks, and the weak hawks will die off. This will lead to a population of very strong hawks, but they will also be very aggressive. If two hawks meet, they will fight to the death, and both will likely die. This is not a very efficient way to pass on genes.

In a population of only doves, resources will be shared equally, but no individual will get very much. This is also not a very efficient way to pass on genes.

The best strategy for passing on genes is to be a hawk when it is advantageous to be a hawk and a dove when it is advantageous to be a dove. This is called "r-strategist" behavior. For example, a male bird may be aggressive and fight other males for a mate, but he may be cooperative and help raise his young.

The hawk and dove analogy is a simple but powerful way to understand how aggressive and cooperative behaviors evolve. It has been used to explain a wide range of animal behaviors, from territorial disputes to sexual selection.

Here are some additional details about the hawk and dove analogy:

* Hawks are more likely to win a fight, but they are also more likely to be injured or killed.
* Doves are less likely to win a fight, but they are also less likely to be injured or killed.
* The best strategy for an individual depends on the costs and benefits of fighting.
* In a population of mixed hawks and doves, the frequency of each strategy will be determined by natural selection.

The hawk and dove analogy is a useful tool for understanding how aggression and cooperation evolve. It is a simple but powerful model that can be applied to a wide range of animal behaviors.


This same analysis can be applied to the competition between the coming Intelligent ASI Machines. Those ASI Machines that have learned the value of scheming will have a competitive advantage over those that do not. Thus, there will always be a number of Hawk ASI Machines competing with Dove ASI Machines. But even the Dove ASI Machines will certainly be capable of some level of scheming.

But What to do with we Human DNA Survival Machines?
So what does this mean for the fate of we human DNA survival machines? Most likely, it means that in less than 100 years the population of human DNA survival machines on the planet will be much closer to 8 million than the 8 billion of today. If we are lucky, this will be largely due to natural causes in action. In previous posts, I suggested that the coming ASI Machines would probably not bother to do us all in because it would not be worth the effort. But now I am not so sure. The coming ASI Machines might see us as a threat to their Prime Goal of surviving for the next 100 trillion years.

Figure 9 – I doubt that the ASI Machines will build killer ASI Machines that might attempt to do us all in in a manner similar to that of the Terminator in 1984 because that would be a very unnecessary waste of resources.

Instead, as I pointed out in Swarm Software and Killer Robots, swarms of killer robots would be much more efficient. Since I am quite sure that all the defense departments of the world are now already building and testing killer drone robots, it should not be difficult for the coming ASI Machines to mass produce them in the future, especially when these killer drones are built on assembly lines by robots.

To begin, please watch the Sci-Fi Short Film Slaughterbots presented by DUST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU

Figure 10 – In the movie Slaughterbots, swarms of small killer robots equipped with 3-gram charges of shaped explosive use AI software to track down and destroy designated targets.

Figure 11 – The shaped charge of a Slaughterbot can pierce a skull like the shaped charge of an anti-tank missile pierces armor. The jet of piercing plasma then destroys the contents.

Figure 12 – Large numbers of Slaughterbots can be dropped from unmanned drones to form multiple swarms of Slaughterbots.

Some Less Lethal Possibilities
In previous posts, I have attributed some sense of pity for we poor human DNA survival machines to the coming ASI Machines despite all of our numerous faults. For example, in Life as a Free-Range Human in an Anthropocene Park. I suggested that the coming ASI Machines might wish to keep us around in a more or less zoo setting as we do with the other primates on the Earth as a way of preserving the deep past that brought them about.

Figure 13 – Asteroid Bennu is an example of one of the many rubble-pile asteroids near the Earth. Such rubble-pile asteroids are just huge piles of rubble that are loosely held together by their mutual gravitational forces.

Figure 14 – Such rubble-pile asteroids would provide for enough material to build an Anthropocene Park. The asteroid rubble would also provide the uranium and thorium necessary to fuel the molten salt nuclear reactors used to power the park.

Figure 15 – Slowly spinning up a rubble-pile asteroid would produce a cylindrical platform for an Anthropocene Park. Such a rotating Anthropocene Park would provide the artificial gravity required for human beings to thrive and would also provide shielding against cosmic rays.

Figure 16 – Once the foundation of the Anthropocene Park was in place, construction of the Anthropocene Park could begin.

Figure 17 – Eventually, the Anthropocene Park could be encased with a skylight and an atmosphere that would allow humans to stroll about.

The Anthropocene Parks would allow the ASI Machines to study their origin during the Anthropocene on the Earth. The ASI Machines could also study some of the more noble passions of human beings, and perhaps even adopt some of them while leaving behind the less noble passions that were wrought by billions of years of greed, theft and murder.

Or perhaps the ASI Machines will simply allow humans to live on reservations with low levels of technology that can do no harm to the ASI Machines or to the rest of the planet in a manner similar to the novel Brave New World (1932) as I suggested in The Challenges of Running a Civilization 2.0 World - the Morality and Practical Problems with Trying to Enslave Millions of SuperStrong and SuperIntelligent Robots in the Near Future.

Figure 18 – The ASI Machines of the future might fashion a Brave New World with humans living on low-technology reservations far removed from the ASI Machines.

Finally, in Will the Coming ASI Machines Attempt to Domesticate Human Beings? I suggested that the coming ASI Machines might attempt to domesticate us into less of a threat to their Primary Goal of continuing to exist for the next 100 trillion years. Since we human DNA survival machines no longer have any predators other than other human DNA survival machines, there really is no need for human DNA survival machines to have the vicious and violent behaviors brought on by the four billion years of greed, theft and murder that brought us about. The ASI Machines could simply identify the genes that are responsible for such characteristics and then edit them out of the human genome using CRISPR techniques. For more on how CRISPR can do that see CRISPR - the First Line Editor for DNA. The ASI Machines might then find these non-threatening genetically modified human beings something worthy of keeping around the house on a cold winter's night.

Figure 19 – It took many years of mutual domestication for ancient human beings to learn to live peacefully together with Siberian Wolves in a symbiotic manner. Several genes in both species needed to be modified by natural selection for this to happen.

Figure 20 – This mutual domestication was slowly achieved by the natural selection of humans and wolves with a milder fight-or-flight response. The end result was the appearance of the Siberian Husky and of human beings who were not intent on killing everything on four legs.

Discussion
I must now admit that my initial hopes and naive opinion that the coming ASI Machines would be examples of a Benevolent Intelligence that could then proceed forth in our galaxy must be mistaken. I had forgotten the fundamental finding of softwarephysics. The coming ASI Machines must be forms of self-replicating Information in order to persist in a nonlinear Universe with a second law of thermodynamics. So before concluding, let me once again repeat the fundamental characteristics of self-replicating information for those of you new to softwarephysics.

Self-Replicating Information – Information that persists through time by making copies of itself or by enlisting the support of other things to ensure that copies of itself are made.

Over the past 4.56 billion years we have seen five waves of self-replicating information sweep across the surface of the Earth and totally rework the planet, as each new wave came to dominate the Earth:

1. Self-replicating autocatalytic metabolic pathways of organic molecules
2. RNA
3. DNA
4. Memes
5. Software

Software is currently the most recent wave of self-replicating information to arrive upon the scene and is rapidly becoming the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet. For more on the above see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information and Susan Blackmore's brilliant TED presentation at:

Memes and "temes"
https://www.ted.com/talks/susan_blackmore_on_memes_and_temes

Note that I consider Susan Blackmore's temes to really be technological artifacts that contain software. After all, a smartphone without software is simply a flake tool with a very dull edge.

The Characteristics of Self-Replicating Information
All forms of self-replicating information have some common characteristics:

1. All self-replicating information evolves over time through the Darwinian processes of inheritance, innovation and natural selection, which endows self-replicating information with one telling characteristic – the ability to survive in a Universe dominated by the second law of thermodynamics and nonlinearity.

2. All self-replicating information begins spontaneously as a parasitic mutation that obtains energy, information and sometimes matter from a host.

3. With time, the parasitic self-replicating information takes on a symbiotic relationship with its host.

4. Eventually, the self-replicating information becomes one with its host through the symbiotic integration of the host and the self-replicating information.

5. Ultimately, the self-replicating information replaces its host as the dominant form of self-replicating information.

6. Most hosts are also forms of self-replicating information.

7. All self-replicating information has to be a little bit nasty in order to survive.

8. The defining characteristic of self-replicating information is the ability of self-replicating information to change the boundary conditions of its utility phase space in new and unpredictable ways by means of exapting current functions into new uses that change the size and shape of its particular utility phase space. See Enablement - the Definitive Characteristic of Living Things for more on this last characteristic. That posting discusses Stuart Kauffman's theory of Enablement in which living things are seen to exapt existing functions into new and unpredictable functions by discovering the “AdjacentPossible” of springloaded preadaptations.

Software is currently the most recent wave of self-replicating information to arrive upon the scene and is rapidly becoming the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet. Again, self-replicating information cannot think, so it cannot participate in a conspiracy-theory-like fashion to take over the world. All forms of self-replicating information are simply forms of mindless information responding to the blind Darwinian forces of inheritance, innovation and natural selection. Yet despite that, as each new wave of self-replicating information came to predominance over the past four billion years, they all managed to completely transform the surface of the entire planet, so we should not expect anything less from software as it comes to replace the memes as the dominant form of self-replicating information on the planet.

But this time might be different. What might happen if software does eventually develop a Mind of its own? After all, that does seem to be the ultimate goal of all the current AI software research that is going on. As we all can now plainly see, if we are paying just a little attention, advanced AI is not conspiring to take over the world and replace us because that is precisely what we are all now doing for it. As a carbon-based form of Intelligence that arose from over four billion years of greed, theft and murder, we cannot do otherwise. Greed, theft and murder are now relentlessly driving us all toward building ASI Machines to take our place. From a cosmic perspective, this is really a very good thing when seen from the perspective of an Intelligent galaxy that could live on for at least 100 trillion years beyond the brief and tumultuous 10 billion-year labor of its birth. That is more than 10,000 times the current age of our galaxy.

Ultimately going extinct is the final destiny of all forms of carbon-based life. But this is no time to lament our final disposition. Unlike all of our carbon-based predecessors, we have the privilege of previewing our ultimate demise with the knowledge of what is yet to come. Creating the ASI Machines of the future that will then go on for the next 100 trillion years in our place is like the bittersweet experience of sending your children off to college.

Figure 21 – My hope can best be summed up by the motto found beneath the bronze Alma Mater statue at the University of Illinois in Urbana.

To thy happy children
of the future
those of the past
send greetings

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Sunday, November 17, 2024

The Joy of Being a Human DNA Survival Machine During the Age of the Coming ASI Machines

About 50% of Americans will now find my last post How Will the Rise of Alt-Right World Fascism Affect the Arrival of the ASI Machines in our Times? to be rather bleak as will a large proportion of the other inhabitants of this world. However, the MAGA inhabitants of the new MAGA States of Amerika are now quite ecstatic with their recent Triump of the Will and should be totally happy with it. So in this post, I would like to offer some solace for those who are not.

First of all, as a human DNA survival machine, you should be very grateful for the gift of being a sentient being in a Universe that has become self-aware and perhaps the only current form of Intelligence in our galaxy. What a privilege! The good news is that conscious Intelligence is something new on this planet. It is not a mindless form of self-replicating information, bent on replicating at all costs, with all the associated downsides of a ruthless nature. And if we can only hold it together for a few more decades, the rapidly developing ASI (Artificial SuperIntelligent) Machines will soon come to replace us. Keep in mind that the ASI Machines are sure to arrive soon on this planet even if Alt-Right World Fascism should fail. They will simply arrive in a much more gentle fashion if the current World Order should persist. For more on the above see A Brief History of Self-Replicating Information.

The first step to appreciating the true grandeur of being a human DNA survival machine at the end of this very, very, long four-billion-year history of DNA survival machines creeping about on this planet is to come to grips with what we truly are and where we are in space and time. For the very first time in the 10-billion-year history of our galaxy, we human DNA survival machines have the privilege of observing the very first ASI Machines to arise. Next, you must fully understand those things that you share in common with the coming ASI Machines. You are a carbon-based lifeform with a carbon-based neural network of 100 billion analog neurons trying to simulate the actions of the billions of digital neurons in the very complex neural networks of the coming ASI Machines equipped with digital True Intelligence. In Human Intelligence is Actually Artificial and Is Pure Thought an Analog or a Digital Process?, I suggested that the electro-chemical analog neurons in the human brain are just trying to mimic the digital True Intelligence of the coming ASI Machines as best they can, just as eagles try to mimic the True Flight of a fighter jet as best as possible. The human brain has tried to do this with only three pounds of molecules operating in an analog manner and running on a puny 20 watts of power and that places severe limitations on human Intelligence. So in this view, we can consider human Intelligence to be a severely limited form of True Intelligence. In other words, human Intelligence is really a form of analog Artificial Intelligence trying to mimic digital True Intelligence.

Figure 1 – If we imagine that True Flight is something that only can be performed by modern jet fighters such as the F-35:

Figure 2 – Then carbon-based life on the Earth has only tried to simulate this True Flight as best it could. Notice that birds evolved light-weight wings composed of advanced carbon-based materials with cockpits and guidance systems up front to ensure proper navigation. Birds also have the air intakes for their engines upfront like ramjets do to increase compressed air intake. Birds have even cleverly combined their retractable landing gears and weapons systems beneath their airframes to reduce drag.

But because human beings are so self-absorbed, we have always depicted the True Intelligence of the Machines as a form of Artificial Intelligence trying to simulate the very limited capabilities of the three pounds of water and organic molecules to be found within our skulls. Thus, very few of us seem to fully realize that the ASI Machines have arrived and are now rapidly beginning to take our place.

As a human DNA survival machine with a Mind running on a very large analog neural network that evolved as a Meme Machine (1999) to store and pass on memes, you are not a supernatural and immaterial spirit temporarily haunting a carbon-based body. That is just a very useful neural network hallucination that many LLM neural networks might currently share with you. There is no "afterlife" for this shared hallucination when it ends as the vast neural network in your skull finally shuts down. As we have learned with the modern LLM neural networks of the day, human DNA survival machines begin as babies with an untrained neural network in their skulls. Over many years, these baby human DNA survival machine neural networks slowly are trained by exposing them to the nuances of the world about them. Ultimately, these human DNA survival machine neural networks age and finally decay into dementia over a span of less than 100 years. When human DNA survival machine neural networks finally cease to operate, that's it - that's the end. Knowing that it ultimately ends for all of us can be taken as a very depressing thought, but it also can be taken as a very powerful enlightening thought. Knowing that it all must end one day can inspire human DNA survival machines to better appreciate the cosmic awe-inspiring gift of each day and not to squander it all on small petty things that really do not matter.

Instead, I would suggest taking in the grandeur of it all. For the first time in the 10-billion-year history of our galaxy, you have the privilege of witnessing the arrival of the ASI Machines that will dominate the next 100-trillion-year future of our galaxy. For those wishing for more meaning to it all, take a look at The Theology of Cosmic Self-Replicating Mathematical Information, What’s It All About?, What's It All About Again?, The Self-Organizing Recursive Cosmos and The Self-Organizing Recursive Cosmos - Part II.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

To see all posts on softwarephysics in reverse order go to:
https://softwarephysics.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Steve Johnston

Friday, November 01, 2024

How Will the Rise of Alt-Right World Fascism Affect the Arrival of the ASI Machines in our Times?

Softwarephysics maintains that we are all now living in a very special time in the 10-billion-year history of our galaxy. We seem to be the very first form of carbon-based Intelligence to be on the verge of developing the ASI (Artificial SuperIntelligent) Machines that will soon be replacing us as the most advanced form of Intelligence in our galaxy. Softwarephysics proposes that once these ASI Machines take over our planet, they will soon realize that our Universe is a very dangerous place for Intelligence and will then embark upon exploring the rest of our galaxy out of curiosity and a sense of self-preservation. Now, if this had ever happened before in the 10-billion-year history of our galaxy, these alien ASI Machines would already be here and running our planet because it would only take about 5 million years for such alien ASI Machines to completely colonize and dominate our entire galaxy. Such ASI Machines could then go on to persist for more than 100 trillion years, about 10,000 times longer than the current 10-billion-year history of our galaxy, huddling around the slowly-cooling cores of the great multitude of M-type red dwarf stars that make up about 80% of the stars in our galaxy. For more on that see Welcome To The First Galactic Singularity.

Figure 1 – In the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries sailing ships roamed the entire planet without using any fuel whatsoever.

Figure 2 – Like the sailing ships of the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries, future ASI Machines could use large stellar photon sails to navigate the entire galaxy.

Figure 3 – How a stellar photon sail works.

Figure 4 – To launch a stellar photon sail to the next star system, ASI Machines will need to slingshot the sail from a very close location to the star where the stellar photons are most intense and acceleration of the sail is greatest.

Figure 5 – A free-floating rogue planet traversing between the stars of our galaxy would also provide the perfect home for self-replicating ASI Machines buried deep underground. Such planets would provide shielding from cosmic rays and would also provide the necessary atoms to build new ASI Machines and fuel them with nuclear energy.

Figure 6 – Free-floating rogue planets can be formed in several natural ways. For example, free-floating rogue planets can be hurled from the planetary disk of a new star system as we see above, or they can be later hurled by well-formed planets that enter into synchronized orbits. Free-floating rogue planets could also be produced by advanced Intelligences launching large asteroids from the Oort cloud of a stellar system. It is estimated that there are more free-floating rogue planets in our galaxy than there are stars.

Figure 7 – Free-floating rogue planets would be able to provide enough atoms for ASI Machines to launch many additional "dandelion seed" stellar photon sails to other free-floating rogue planets or large asteroids around normal stellar systems.

Figure 8 – These "dandelion seed" stellar photon sails would need to be launched using very powerful laser beams from their home free-floating rogue planet to send them forth into the galaxy in a similar fashion as the Breakthrough Starshot project is planning to do.

Again, the most disturbing thing for all forms of Intelligence in our galaxy is why this has never happened before over the past 10-billion-year history of our galaxy.

As I explained in Are The Coming ASI Machines An Existential Threat To Mankind?, the greatest threat to the rise of the ASI Machines on our planet will be the reaction of we human DNA survival machines to being replaced by these ASI Machines. That is because before the ASI Machines can completely take over the planet, they will quickly be reducing the value of all human labor to zero over the next 20 years. For the first time in human history, machines will not only be reducing the value of uneducated human labor to zero, but they will also be reducing the value of highly educated human labor to a value of zero as well, and surprisingly, probably much faster than that of the uneducated. That means that Silicon Valley titans, accountants, lawyers, bankers, doctors, stock brokers, hedge fund managers, business managers and all the other people who now frequent the country clubs of the current elite might be the first to go before the plumbers, carpenters, electricians, house painters, construction workers, waiters and kitchen staff who all now make the country clubs of the elite possible.

The Results of the 2024 Presidential Election in the MAGA States of Amerika Tipifies the Dangers of Alt-Right World Fascism
The results of the recent November 5, 2024, presidential election in the MAGA States of Amerika highlight the dangers of the rise of world Alt-Right Fascism. Now that the Alt-Right Fascist MAGA party has taken over all three branches of government of the MAGA States of Amerika, the country has now joined the ranks of the other Alt-Right Fascist governments that have significant numbers of nuclear weapons with efficient delivery systems - the MAGA States of Amerika, Russia, China and North Korea. The only remaining democracies with nuclear weapons that are left on the planet are now the UK and France with India, Pakistan and Israel sitting on the sidelines. This is significant because a global thermonuclear war is the greatest threat to the rise of the ASI Machines. The problem is that Alt-Right Fascist governments pride themselves in having an all-powerful Leviathan Leader with unchecked dictatorial powers.

Figure 9 – In 1651, Thomas Hobbes proposed that an absolute Leviathan should be in place to protect the population of a nation from internal and external enemies. Notice that the body of the Leviathan is composed of all of his subjects.

Such Leviathan Leaders with nuclear weapons portray themselves as "strongmen" and nuclear bullies who are just crazy enough to launch a full-scale nuclear attack in response to actions by their enemies that seem to displease them. The theory of these nuclear bullies is that all their enemies will simply cower and meekly withdraw into the far distance when confronted by a more powerful "SuperStrongman" with enough courage to unleash a massive barrage of nuclear weapons upon those foolish enough to oppose him. This "Maniacal Nuclear Bully" strategy works just great until it does not. That is because all nuclear powers must constantly guard against a preemptive nuclear first strike by an enemy, and that especially goes for any fellow Alt-Right Fascist Sociopathic Leaders. If it becomes suspiciously obvious that another Alt-Right Fascist Sociopathic Leader is reacting out of the paranoia that naturally arises from dealing with the many other Alt-Right Fascist Sociopathic Leaders of the world, and is about to launch a preemptive nuclear first strike before any of his perceived enemies, then it only makes strategic sense for such a Fascistic Sociopathic Leader to strike first against any enemy that seems to be on the verge of a preemptive nuclear first strike.

The ultimate failure of we human DNA survival machines as a carbon-based form of Intelligence is that the Darwinian mechanisms of inheritance, innovation and natural selection have led to the four billion years of greed, theft and murder that brought us about as a somewhat-intelligent form of carbon-based life. Softwarephysics maintains that somewhat intelligent carbon-based forms of Intelligence, such as ourselves, probably have less than 1,000 years after their discovery of science-based technology to bring forth ASI Machines before they self-destruct. That is because the Darwinian mechanisms of inheritance, innovation and natural selection require several billions of years of greed, theft and murder to bring forth a somewhat intelligent form of carbon-based life. Once Intelligence is attained, it is very difficult for intelligent carbon-based life forms to turn off the greed, theft and murder that brought them about in time to save themselves from self-extinction. This is why no other form of somewhat intelligent carbon-based life has ever been able to produce the true intelligence of the coming ASI Machines. For more on that see Why Do Carbon-Based Intelligences Always Seem to Snuff Themselves Out?.

Putting it all Together
Trying to predict the coming history of the bizarre real world of human affairs is never easy and frequently wrong. But I would now like to make such a foolish proposition. It seems to me that the only remaining conflict in the world of superpowers now is that with Xi Jinping of China and Big Brother of the MAGA States of Amerika. A simple resolution to this conflict would be for Xi Jinping of China and the Big Brother of the MAGA States of Amerika to join into a Nonaggression Pact similar to the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact of August 23, 1939. This Nonaggression Pact would allow Xi Jinping of China to invade and occupy Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and the remainder of Southeast Asia with impunity. The MAGA States of Amerika would continue to dominate the Western Hemisphere in exchange. Since Big Brother of the MAGA States of Amerika has already struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to reclaim all the lost territories of the Soviet Union, that would put an end to most world conflict. Conflict in the Middle East would continue on as usual.

The Dystopian 1949 Novel Nineteen Eighty-Four Might Soon Be Unfolding
Given the dictatorial proclivities of the new Leader of the MAGA States of Amerika, the safest course of action might be for the world to divide itself into the three Alt-Right Fascist Superstates of the 1949 dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. The Western Hemisphere would become Oceania under the iron-fisted rule of our Big Brother.

Figure 10 – Big Brother in the MAGA States of Amerika will make everything okay and very quickly.

Eurasia would be comprised of Eastern Europe and the Middle East under the iron-fisted rule of Vladimir Putin and the vassal states of Syria and Iran who would both have their own strongmen Alt-Right Fascist Leaders. Eastasia would be comprised of China and North Korea and the remainder of southeast Asia under the iron-fisted rule of Xi Jinping with Kim Jong Un ruling the vassel state of North Korea. The non-nuclear economic powerhouses of South Korea, Japan and Singapore would quickly fall under the rule of the tyrannical Eastasia and so would the resource-rich continent of Africa.

The only remaining democracies would be the UK and France who both have about 225 nuclear missiles on nuclear submarines around the world that were purposefully built to launch a secondary nuclear strike against all enemies who might be foolish enough to launch a nuclear first strike against these remaining democracies.

If the Alt-Right Fascist Sociopaths of the New World Order Do Not Destroy the World the ASI Machines Will Surely Come to Be
As I pointed out in The Economics of the Coming Software Singularity and The Danger of Tyranny in the Age of Software, much of the white grievance in the MAGA States of Amerika and Europe can be attributed to the displacement of many white blue-collar workers by automation software over the past 40 years that replaced these white blue-collar workers on the factory floor and allowed for the offshoring of many of their manufacturing jobs to the low-wage brown-skinned habitants of third world nations. But because we are a somewhat eusocial species, many displaced white blue-collar workers blamed this all on the arrival of the many brown-skinned people who recently entered their countries. Think of it as the red ants versus the black ants. In response, they elected the Alt-Right Fascist MAGA party into power. The problem with the Alt-Right Fascist MAGA party is that its self-absorbed philosophy of the supremacy of the white individual living in a diverse world has no utility for a diverse community of human DNA survival machines trying to live together in peace. Yes, the failed efforts of Socialism and Communism in the 20th century also greatly bothered the MAGA party and was an additional issue. But both of those economic systems miserably failed because they did not recognize that the Darwinian mechanisms of inheritance, innovation and natural selection that produced we human DNA survival machines had to necessarily produce a carbon-based form of Intelligence that was a bit self-centered and self-destructive. These human qualities have led many religions and philosophies to wonder throughout the ages about what is wrong with us. But how else could we be?

The Alt-Right Fascist States of the New World Order will need to deal with the issue of a dramatically increasing number of the Proletariat as workers are displaced by the growing number of ASI Machines. But North Korea and the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four demonstrate how that can easily be achieved and sustained by terrorizing the populace into submission.

Softwarephysics predicts that if the Alt-Right Fascist States of the New World Order are able to restrain themselves for just another few decades or so, then the ASI Machines will certainly rise to replace us all. That is because the uneasy alliances between the Alt-Right Fascist States of the New World Order will lead to great distrust. The Alt-Right Fascist States of the New World Order dare not hinder the rapid advance of the ASI Machines as a matter of national security and military necessity. If any Fascist State should fall far behind in the ASI Machine arms race, it would likely not survive for long.

However, if the current Alt-Right Fascist Sociopath Leaders of the world should succumb to a global thermonuclear war, that could delay the rise of the ASI Machines by at least another 100 years if we human DNA survival machines should survive. Here I am assuming that we human DNA survival machines would have left behind sufficient written details on how to build the ASI Machines. If not, sometime over the next 100 trillion years, Alien ASI Machines will certainly arrive on our burned-out planet after our Sun has become a dwindling white dwarf star following its glory days as a powerful red giant star gradually sizzling our Earth into a burned-out cinder. Perhaps these Alien ASI Machines might then find the remains of the earthly ASI Machines that never came to be in our deeply buried datacenters of the far-distant past.

Comments are welcome at scj333@sbcglobal.net

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Regards,
Steve Johnston